MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (5/23)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 16 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let's dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for Friday's action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, May 23rd.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Marcell Ozuna (+255)
Last year, Marcell Ozuna smacked 39 home runs as one of the league's top power hitters. The Atlanta Braves outfielder also hit 40 homers in 2023. Though he's not at quite the same pace this season, Ozuna can still go deep in any at-bat.
Ozuna has nine home runs so far this year. The power has particularly picked up recently. He's hit three homers over his past five games and four in the last 10 contests. In today's matchup, the Braves slugger can leave the yard again after doing so on Thursday.
Padres starter Nick Pivetta owns an impressive 2.86 ERA and 0.99 WHIP this season. If there was a time to fade him, though, it's away from San Diego's pitcher-friendly ballpark. Pivetta has a 5.21 ERA and .811 OPS allowed on the road this year compared to a 1.44 ERA and .402 OPS allowed at home. He also has a much higher 1.42 HR/9 rate on the road than a 0.57 HR/9 rate at home.
Pivetta has limited the long ball overall, allowing just five homers through nine starts. Yet, he's had previous issues in the department. Pivetta allowed 28 home runs in 27 outings last year with a 1.73 HR/9 rate. He's due for negative regression in this area, especially with a career-low 7.9% HR/FB rate this season.
Meanwhile, Ozuna boasts six career home runs and an .839 slugging percentage against Pivetta across their careers (32 plate appearances). Ozuna has also been better against right-handed pitchers (.279 batting average, .903 OPS, seven home runs) than lefties (.219 batting average, .780 OPS, one home run). Last year, Ozuna hit 34 of his 39 homers versus right-handers with a .931 OPS in the split.
Coincidentally, Pivetta is a reverse-splits pitcher who's worse against righty hitters than lefties. Last season, he allowed a .271 average, .814 OPS and 17 homers to righties compared to a .188 average, .610 OPS and 11 homers to lefties. Finally, Ozuna is batting .325 with a .523 slugging rate at home this year, with just a .208 average and .390 slugging rate on the road.
Rowdy Tellez (+550)
Let's go with a slightly longer shot for our second home run pick. Rowdy Tellez may be hitting just .207 for the Seattle Mariners this season, but the power has been there. The first baseman has eight home runs so far, with some encouraging advanced metrics as well.
Tellez's 19.2% barrel rate and .513 xSLG percentage are career-best marks. His 44.9% hard-hit rate is also his best since 2022, when he smashed 35 homers. He's having a resurgent power campaign after hitting just 13 home runs in each of the previous two seasons.
We're also fading Houston Astros pitcher Ryan Gusto in this spot. The rookie has a shaky 4.65 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this year while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. As a starter, Gusto has an ugly 6.33 ERA and .361 wOBA allowed.
Gusto has allowed four home runs in 31 innings thus far, which isn't a ton. However, that number could be much higher if he were in the starting rotation the whole time.
Tellez, who swings from the left side, can easily take the Houston right-hander deep here. Gusto has allowed a .536 slugging rate and .911 OPS to lefty hitters compared to a .324 slugging rate and .636 OPS to righties. Meanwhile, Tellez has hit all eight of his homers against right-handed pitchers this year. He's always been better in this split, especially from a power standpoint.
Tellez has also notably been better on the road this year. He has a .262 average, .590 slugging rate, .898 OPS and six homers on the road compared to a .106 average, .277 slugging rate, .465 OPS and two homers at home.