MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Friday (5/30)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let’s dive into the top MLB home run props, picks and predictions for Friday’s action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let’s focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, May 30th.
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Friday's Best MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Corbin Carroll (+285)
The top of the MLB home run leaderboard includes expected names like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber. The player who ranks fifth in home runs this season, though, may be a bit surprising. Corbin Carroll has 16 homers so far after hitting 22 and 25 in the previous two seasons.
Carroll is among the league leaders in multiple other advanced hitting and power stats as well. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder has a .590 xSLG (98th percentile), 17.4% barrel rate (95th), 93.1 miles per hour (MPH) average exit velo (93rd) and 51.5% hard-hit rate (89th). He also boasts a .560 slugging rate (ninth in the league) and .302 ISO (fifth).
Carroll has a good chance of going deep on Friday at home against Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin. The right-hander has given up 10 home runs in 11 starts this season. This continues a trend from last year when Irvin allowed 29 homers in 33 outings. He also coughed up 20 homers in 24 starts two seasons ago.
Irvin has allowed seven of his 10 home runs to left-handed hitters this year. Meanwhile, 13 of Carroll's 16 bombs have come against righties. He also owns a .618 slugging rate and .955 OPS in the split. Plus, Carroll is hitting a bit better at home (.274 batting average, .946 OPS) than on the road (.243 batting average, 829 OPS).
We have a ton of signs pointing to Carroll leaving the yard tonight. He has five home runs over his last 15 games and just went deep on Tuesday. It helps that Carroll is 4-for-9 with two homers and a triple against Irvin in his career.
Trent Grisham (+350)
Friday night brings us a World Series rematch between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both offenses boast multiple power hitters who can go deep in any at-bat. Instead of looking at the obvious options like Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge, let's go with a different guy.
Trent Grisham's 12 home runs rank second on the Yankees, trailing only Judge. It's been an impressive power display for a guy who only hit nine homers last season. Plus, his career-high mark is 17 with San Diego in 2022.
Grisham boasts some elite advanced metrics in the power department. His .554 xSLG (93rd MLB percentile), 16.4% barrel rate (92nd), .268 ISO and 21.1% HR/FB rate are all career-best numbers.
The Yankees outfielder will face Dodgers righty Tony Gonsolin. The L.A. starter has allowed four home runs in five starts so far. He previously gave up 19 homers in 20 starts in the 2023 campaign (his last full season). Gonsolin also has a shaky 4.68 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through five starts this year.
Gonsolin has notably worse numbers against left-handed hitters (.294 opponents’ batting average, .871 OPS) than righties (.209 opponents’ batting average, .625 OPS). Meanwhile, Grisham is crushing right-handed pitching with a .292 batting average, .646 slugging rate and 1.022 OPS compared to much weaker splits versus lefties (.193 batting average, .316 slugging rate, .629 OPS). He also has 10 home runs against right-handers with just two against southpaws.
Grisham has, of course, benefited from the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. However, he's hit better on the road (.261 batting average, .533 slugging rate) than at home (.246 batting average, .508 slugging rate). The cherry on top is his favorable head-to-head success versus Gonsolin. In their careers, Grisham is 7-for-15 (.467 batting average) with a home run and a double against the Dodgers starting pitcher.