MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (5/9)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let's dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for today's action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, May 9.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Christian Yelich (+400)
Sometimes, home run predictions are more about fading a pitcher than targeting specific hitters. Let's do that with Tampa Bay Rays starter Zack Littell taking on the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.
Littell has a 4.61 ERA and 5.63 FIP for Tampa this season. He's especially struggled to avoid the long ball, with 10 home runs allowed across seven starts. That's the second-most in the Majors. Littell's 2.20 HR/9 rate is also the highest among all qualified starters.
The Rays right-hander had home run issues last year as well, coughing up 22 homers in 29 starts. This season, Littell has given up multiple home runs in three of his last five outings.
We have a few Brewers who can go deep in this matchup, but Christian Yelich is the top choice. The veteran outfielder has struggled to hit this year with just a .197 batting average. However, Yelich has six home runs - tied for the team lead.
Yelich has some splits in his favor tonight. The left-handed hitter has an .812 OPS with all six of his homers coming against right-handed pitching, compared to a .393 OPS with zero home runs against left-handers. Littell, meanwhile, has been slightly worse versus lefties with a .507 slugging percentage and .818 OPS allowed in the split.
Plus, favorable hitting conditions provide a cherry on top for Yelich tonight. We have temperatures in the mid-80s and the wind blowing out at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which is already a hitter-friendly park. Littell has a 5.06 ERA at home this year with five homers allowed across 16 innings.
Cal Raleigh (+220)
After smacking 34 home runs last year, Cal Raleigh showed he can be one of the league's top power hitters. Well, he's proving it this season. The Seattle Mariners catcher is tied for the MLB lead with 12 homers. He's well on pace for a third straight 30-homer campaign.
Let's bank on Raleigh going deep in a favorable spot against Toronto Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman tonight. We never want to put too much stock in batter versus pitcher stats, but they're pretty glaring here. Raleigh is batting .455 with three home runs in 13 career at-bats vs. Gausman. That's hard to ignore despite the small sample size.
Raleigh also boasts a .618 slugging percentage and 1.023 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He's hit nine of his 12 homers vs. righties as well. Last year, 21 of his 34 home runs came in this split. Raleigh has also hit 78% of his career homers against righties.
Gausman isn't allowing a ton of home runs, admittedly. He's coughed up four in seven starts so far this season. Last year, the Toronto right-hander allowed 20 homers in 31 starts.
Even so, we're targeting Raleigh to come through. You could say he's due to go yard as he hasn't done so in six games. Considering the pace he's on so far, the mini-drought should end soon.