MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Monday (5/12)
Another week of MLB action is in the books, and the New York Yankees tower above all squads with 70 home runs. Of course, the Bronx bombers are not the only ones showcasing a power stroke at the plate.
Here’s a look at three sluggers worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence in Monday's best MLB home run bets.
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Monday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kyle Tucker (+400)
To say the addition of outfielder Kyle Tucker has boosted the Cubs’ lineup would be putting it lightly. Chicago averages the most runs per game (5.78) and boasts the league’s fourth-best team OPS (.768) in 2025. Tucker has guided the way with 10 home runs, eight doubles, and 32 RBI across 41 contests. Note that he is chasing pitches at a career-low rate (16.6%) and barreling baseballs at a career-high rate (14.8%) so far.
A beneficial matchup awaits Tucker on Monday. Miami’s Cal Quantrill has logged a disastrous 7.11 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts. Hard contact has been at the root of the right-hander’s struggles. Quantrill checks in outside the top 300 pitchers in average exit velocity and strikeout percentage. Behind him is a Marlins’ bullpen that has conceded the second-most homers in the National League (21). Trust Tucker to blast off.
Ryan McMahon (+500)
The Rockies may sport a horrendous 7-33 record, but don’t overlook their roster in the prop bet department. Third baseman Ryan McMahon has found his stride after working through a hitting slump in April. The 2024 All-Star is slashing .333/.480/.744 with four home runs and an 11:9 walk-to-strikeout ratio during the past 15 days. On the season, McMahon’s average exit velocity of 94.4 miles per hour ranks as the 10th-highest mark in the majors.
A trip to Globe Life Field presents a notable opportunity for McMahon to go yard. After all, he is 5-for-13 with two homers and eight RBI against Texas starter Tyler Mahle. It’s worth pointing out that Mahle was taken deep twice in his last start and relies on his four-seamer over 52% of the time on the mound. McMahon has tallied double-digit jacks versus fastballs in each of his previous three campaigns. Target McMahon with confidence.
Gleyber Torres (+870)
Let’s wrap up these picks with a dark-horse option. Detroit’s Gleyber Torres is taking advantage of the chances he gets to put the ball in play. The second baseman is a top-10 batter when it comes to squared-up percentage (43.5%). That slots him alongside elite players like Los Angeles’ Freddie Freeman and Boston’s Alex Bregman. Torres has showcased his plate discipline by smashing three of his four home runs on a two-strike count.
A familiar foe from Torres’ days on the Yankees comes to the Motor City on Monday night. Tanner Houck draws the start for the Red Sox. The sixth-year pro has surrendered at least one homer in six of his eight starts and has been tagged for a career-worst 48.1% hard-hit percentage. Torres has gotten the best of Houck before, going 7-for-22 with one dinger and two doubles facing the Boston hurler. Expect that experience to pay off.