MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (4/5)
The 2025 MLB season is underway, and it's so great to have the sun shining down and baseball to bet on again. Saturday's slate features 15 games with every team in action. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for this weekend's matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball, and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds can provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because home run odds differ widely across sportsbooks. Here are some of my favorite players to get a home run in today's games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 1-2 (+4.5 units)
Ryan Mountcastle (+870 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
For one of the earliest favorite bets of the season, we have Ryan Mountcastle going long against Michael Wacha in today's earlier game between Baltimore and Kansas City. Michael Wacha should take the bump. Mountcastle has seen the Royals veteran 20 times, going 8-for-19 with a 1.450 OPS and three long balls.
Kansas City's bullpen owns a 3.60 ERA, 17th in MLB, and they have allowed the third-most home runs to opponents. Considering the history Mountcastle has and batting .313 in his last five games, these are some of the longer odds I've seen for a bet I'm so comfortable making. This has to be a plus-EV bet because he'll likely get four at-bats in plus scenarios to go long.
Jose Trevino (+900 on bet365)
Here's another longshot to throw a unit on if you dare. Jose Trevino has homered and tripled off Elvin Rodriguez in his two at-bats against the Brewers’ starting pitcher. It's a small sample size, but promising for future success. He will likely be the number nine hitter, so he won't get as many looks as you'd like, but that's what the longshot odds make up for.
You're risking more with the longer odds, but Trevino is a promising option for going long. He is hitting more after taking a bit to warm up to the season and does well against righties. Rodriguez has also allowed opponents to have a 1.007 OPS against him in his career. This is another longshot but a bet I'm comfortable throwing down for.
Jake Burger (+400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's tempting to go with a Yankees hitter and their new and fancy bats. Trent Grisham is my choice if you take that route, but I don't exactly love any of their props. Jake Burger is pure power and should get four at-bats against Taj Bradley and the Rays’ bullpen.
Burger has already homered once this season and has gone deep against Bradley. He's got the history and is playing at home where his splits are much more favorable. Surprisingly, I think I might like the longer odds above for Mountcastle and Trevino, but I'm in on Burger to go deep as well.