MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (5/24)
The 2025 MLB season is underway, and it's so great to have the sun shining down and baseball to bet on again. Saturday's slate features plenty of games as we continue on a solid start to the season, already hitting some metaphorical and literal longshots. We've hit a bit of a cold spell of late, but we're currently playing with house money, so it's time for a bounce-back performance.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball, and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds can provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because home run odds differ widely across books.
Let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for today’s matchups.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-3 | Season: 5-19 (+11.0 Units) | All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Dansby Swanson (+400)
It surprises me how short these odds are, but everything seems to be lining up nicely for Dansby Swanson today, so we shouldn't be too shocked. Andrew Abbott takes the bump for Cincinnati, and he's been pretty solid to start the year with a 1.80 ERA and a .190 opponent average.
Abbott gave up a home run in each of his first three starts, but has since kept it in the yard, allowing just one earned run in his last four outings. Still, the Cubs infielder has clocked the Reds starter, going 3-for-5 with two doubles and a homer. Of course, it's a small sample size, but considering all of his hits are for extra bases, that's enough to trust his history here.
Dansby has been hot, riding an eight-game hitting streak and 1.066 OPS in May. I'm betting he stays hot today.
Jonathan Aranda (+450)
For some reason, I've found myself betting Tampa Bay a lot this year, but it's made me money, so I won't stop now. If you haven't heard of Jonathan Aranda, I don't blame you; he's already played a career high in games and has finally settled in at first base for the Rays. He's been hitting well with a .306 average and .880 OPS and is capable of going deep.
Aranda has also clobbered Jose Berrios, who takes the bump for Toronto. In 10 at-bats, the Tampa first baseman is 5-for-10 with three long balls. That is some short history I can get behind. Last year, Berrios gave up 21 homers on the road compared to 10 at home, and 18 to lefties versus 13 to righties, so the splits are in favor of Aranda going deep today.
Trent Grisham (+475)
I mean, throw a Yankee into a hat and pick one, right? I've seen Aaron Judge's home run odds as low as +120, which is insane, but playing against a flailing Rockies squad will do that. Trent Grisham might get six at-bats today and has the highest slugging percentage against Kyle Freeland among Yankees starters, having homered three times already off the Colorado starter in his 26 at-bats.
Grisham also has the highest OPS of his career so far with 12 long balls in what seems to be a resurgence in his career after only batting .190 in 2024. He isn't as great against lefties, but I trust that New York can get to Colorado's bullpen early and Grisham can go yard.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: