MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (5/3)
The 2025 MLB season is underway, and it's so great to have the sun shining down and baseball to bet on again. Saturday's slate features plenty of games as we continue on a solid start to the season, hitting some metaphorical and literal longshots already. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for this weekend's matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball, and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds can provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because HR odds differ widely across books. Here are some of my favorite players to get a home run in today's games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 5-10 (+20.0U) | All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Paul Goldschmidt (+400)
Let's start it off simply here. Goldshmidt has started his Yankees tenure off hot with a .361 average and a .906 OPS. He only has three home runs on the year, but both have come in two straight outings, so I'm riding the momentum and expecting him to continue his four-game hitting streak and start a home run streak. Not only is he hot, but he has smashed Zack Littell in the past as well. He's homered off the Rays starter already with two doubles, going 6-for-9 in his at-bats. Littell has a 5.00 ERA on the road this year and is susceptible to the long ball. This is one of the shortest odds I'm willing to take for someone going deep, but one I feel comfortable making with such a great opportunity for Goldschmidt today.
Marcus Semien (+650)
He may only have two home runs on the year, but Semien is due for some improved play, considering he's tallied 20-plus homers in five straight full seasons. Both his home runs this year have come off righties, and he sees Luis Castillo well. The Mariners starter has let up a long ball to Semien, while the Ranger has gone 4-for-13 against him lifetime, which is not bad. Castillo has also seriously struggled on the road this year, while Semien gets a boost at home. I don't expect Semien's odds to be as long for going deep this year, so this is my first official plan to buy stock in him having a rebound month of May.
Cedric Mullins (+650)
Honestly, this is one I'm a little surprised by. Mullins has had a nice start to the year with six longballs for an .893 OPS. He's hitting lefties better than righties and performing relatively evenly home vs. away. To go with it, he's 4-for-8 with three doubles and a home run against Kris Bubic in his career. Every hit he has against the Royals starter is an extra-base hit! Bubic has performed well this year so far and kept the ball in the yard, but he takes a step back on the road historically and doesn't have any major positive splits against lefties.