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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (3/28)

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Baseball fans across the country can rejoice as the wait is now over. Opening Day is here and the sport’s best are set for regular season action. There is no better way to ignite the home fans or quiet a road crowd than with a home run, so let’s take a look at a few players worth backing to leave the yard on Thursday.

MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Christian Walker (+340)

Only 12 starting pitchers gave up at least 29 home runs during the 2023 regular season. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland was one of them and he takes the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night. That bodes well for the hard-hitting Christian Walker, who enters fresh off a 33-homer campaign. His slugging percentage against left-handed pitching (.575) also checked in well above his mark against right-handed pitching (.472) last year.

Keep in mind Walker has gotten the best of Freeland before. He has left the yard twice across 31 career at-bats versus the Rockies hurler. Shaky weather has become a storyline on Opening Day, so bettors may want to shift their attention to a game being played in a dome such as Chase Field. The ball is going to be flying early for a Dbacks team looking to prove their run to the World Series was no fluke.

Giancarlo Stanton (+425)

Giancarlo Stanton has certainly taken a back seat in a Yankees lineup built on the superstar duo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. However, the five-time All-Star surprised New York fans with a resurgent Spring Training effort. Stanton walloped four home runs and finished with an impressive 1.029 OPS in 41 at-bats. The power stroke that carried his game for years seems to be back ahead of an enticing showdown against the Houston Astros.

While Framber Valdez is no slouch on the mound, he has allowed a home run to Stanton before. In fact, it was a 383-foot opposite-field shot that came off the bat at 108 mph. Imagine what the 34-year-old could do if he can pull a pitch toward the Crawford Boxes this time around. The payout for this bet may never be this high again if Stanton begins the regular season on a hot stretch.

Triston Casas (+400)

Boston’s Triston Casas has shown over his first 159 games played that he can smack the cover off of the baseball. His average home run distance of 405 feet ranked fourth and his hard-hit percentage of 46.6% ranked seventh among MLB first basemen in 2023. A whopping 25 of his 29 career home runs have come against right-handed pitching, which is notable as he steps up to the plate opposite Seattle’s Luis Castillo on Opening Day.

Casas has already launched a long ball against Castillo in his young career and trusts himself to take another step up this summer. He turned down the latest extension offer from the Red Sox, citing he hopes to give the team a “better gauge as to what my value might be long term.” The kid from Plantation, Florida, has an opportunity to make an early statement on the road against the Mariners.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: