MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/1)
Over a month of MLB action is in the books. Aaron Judge of the Yankees, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners and Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks all sit tied atop the home run leaderboard with 10 blasts. Of course, they're not the only ones showcasing a power stroke at the plate.
Here’s a look at four sluggers worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence on Thursday, May 1st, with our MLB home run best bets.
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Thursday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Spencer Torkelson (Odds TBD) & Gleyber Torres (Odds TBD)
While Angel Stadium may be Yusei Kikuchi’s current home field, the venue has been anything but friendly for him. The veteran southpaw enters Thursday night with a disastrous 7.12 ERA and 1.84 WHIP through nine career starts at the Anaheim ballpark. That’s troublesome as the Tigers come to town. Detroit ranks second among American League squads in home runs (12) and RBI (45) versus left-handed pitching.
Two players stick out in the Tigers’ lineup. First baseman Spencer Torkelson leads Detroit with a .639 slugging percentage against lefties and checks in 17th among 254 qualified MLB hitters in barrel percentage (17.6%). Second baseman Gleyber Torres has slashed .357/.400/.536 with one homer in 28 at-bats facing Kikuchi and has gone yard twice in the past week. Parlaying both infielders to smash a dinger is an intriguing long-shot option.
Jarren Duran (+500)
This pick is all about experience. Outfielder Jarren Duran has excelled in the intense divisional clashes the Red Sox and Blue Jays have had during the last few years. Sporting a .311/.349/.615 slash line to go with 28 extra-base knocks in 40 games battling one opponent is impressive, to say the least. Duran has specifically haunted Toronto hurler Jose Berrios, going 9-for-18 with three home runs in past run-ins with the right-hander.
Berrios is the listed starter on Thursday, which makes Duran someone to target in this market. Remember that Berrios surrendered the second-most homers of any pitcher in baseball in 2024. He has followed up those frustrations by conceding four jacks across three starts at Rogers Centre in 2025. Berrios has also been taken deep on the first pitch of an at-bat 40 times in his career. Being aggressive could pay off hugely for Duran.
Kyle Manzardo (+390)
Let’s continue with the theme of fading pitchers with exploitable weaknesses. Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richardson rates outside the top 350 hurlers in hard-hit percentage (52.1%) and ground-ball percentage (26%). Simply put, batters are crushing balls in the air versus the fourth-year pro. Woods Richardson has allowed a home run in each of his last four starts ahead of an American League Central showdown with the Guardians.
Kyle Manzardo has shown incredible patience since becoming an everyday starter. The former Washington State standout has logged the lowest chase percentage (21.1%) and the highest walk percentage (12.4%) on the Cleveland roster. It has helped him connect when he does see a pitch in the zone. Manzardo has tallied eight homers this campaign and hammered a moon shot off Woods Richardson back in September. This is a great spot to bet on him.