MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/29)
It's slim pickings for sports bettors on Thursday with just five MLB games on the schedule. However, there's still value to be had from a home run prop betting perspective, as reliable sluggers and advantageous showdowns are lined up for action.
Here's a look at four players worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence on Thursday, May 29th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kyle Schwarber (+260)
The Braves and Phillies will play a split doubleheader on Thursday after rain caused a postponement on Wednesday. This pick focuses on the second contest when Atlanta will hand the ball to Chris Sale. The veteran southpaw has surrendered a home run in seven of his last 10 starts. Not only that, but Sale has been tagged for a homer in each of his two starts facing Philly since he joined its National League East rival in 2024.
Kyle Schwarber has been demolishing baseballs. The two-time All-Star checks in among the top 12 batters in hard-hit percentage (59.3%) and average exit velocity (93.9 miles per hour). It should be noted that he is also 4-for-9 with two dingers against Sale and has previously taken three prominent Atlanta bullpen arms deep (Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer). Lock in Schwarber when his odds become available.
Jeremy Pena (+750)
Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz is fumbling his command this campaign, which is always dangerous at the MLB level. Walks are being drawn thanks to pitches being tossed well out of the zone, and moon shots are being hit thanks to pitches being thrown right down the middle. Overall, the 25-year-old has logged a 4.94 ERA and conceded a home run in eight of his 10 starts. A trip to Houston does not leave much room for error.
The Astros boast the league’s fourth-highest OPS at home (.777) and have hit the third-most homers of any squad in the past week (nine). I’ll trust Jeremy Pena to crush one. The young shortstop is slashing .342/.408/.500 across 30 clashes at Daikin Park and enters Thursday 3-for-6 with a blast versus Baz. Pena’s .547 slugging percentage against fastballs is noteworthy, too, since it’s the pitch Baz relies on most (47.6%).
James Wood (+430) & CJ Abrams (+480)
T-Mobile Park is widely considered a pitcher’s park due to its large outfield dimensions and cool climate. However, Emerson Hancock has not reaped the benefits this season. The Mariners hurler has recorded a disastrous 12.34 ERA and 2.66 WHIP over three home starts. At the forefront of those struggles are five home runs allowed. What has become a worrisome trend for Seattle is an inviting one for the visiting Washington offense.
Two players at the top of the Nationals’ lineup stick out in this market. Second-year pro James Wood leads the team with 10 homers off right-handed pitching and ranks 13th in the Majors in barrel rate (17.6%). Meanwhile, CJ Abrams has posted an impressive .333/.392/.708 slash line to go with six jacks through 18 road matchups. Bettors in search of an enticing longshot option could parlay both Nats to go yard at +2555 odds.