MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/22)
The NBA and NHL playoffs may be stealing all the headlines, but don't forget there's money to be made on the diamond.
I'm looking to bet a few home run prop bets tonight. Below are three players worth backing to touch’em all.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge (+245)
The Guardians (13-9) notched a 6-4 home win in last night's series opener against the Yankees (14-9), and they'll turn to Tanner Bibee to try and make it two in a row against the Bronx Bombers. New York counters with Will Warren in this 2024 American League Championship Series (ALCS) rematch that gets underway at 6:10 p.m. ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH.
Aaron Judge is a threat to go yard anytime he steps into the batter's box, and this feels like a good spot to play him tonight. The superstar slugger has already launched seven home runs this season, the fifth-most in the league. He leads the league in batting average (.384), OPS (1.188) and RBI (25), so it's safe to say he's dialed at the moment.
Judge is 0-for-3 (.000) against Bibee, so the head-to-head data isn't favorable. However, Bibee has been horrendous this season, entering the new week 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. The right-hander brings in a 3.15 HR/9 rate, and his HR/FB mark is 25%. A quarter of the fly balls he allows are leaving the yard. It's also worth noting that Cleveland's bullpen has given up the 10th-most home runs (nine) this year, so Judge should have opportunities throughout the game to go deep.
Elly De La Cruz (+700)
The Reds (11-12) dropped last night's series opener to the Marlins (10-12) in a 6-3 battle in Miami. Cincinnati will send Nick Martinez to the bump in the second game, while Miami opts for Edward Cabrera. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET from loanDepot park in Miami, FL.
I love this wager on Elly De La Cruz, considering the +700 payout. The shortstop is off to a solid start in 2025, hitting .242 (90th) with five bombs (25th) and 22 RBI (fifth). He's riding a six-game hitting streak, with two homers in his last four outings.
De La Cruz has a nice track record against Cabrera, going 1-for-2 (.500) against him with a solo home run. Cabrera has struggled in 2025, bringing a 6.52 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP into tonight's contest. His HR/9 rate is an elevated 1.86. The long ball was an issue for him last season, with his HR/9 rate sitting at 1.40 across 96.1 innings. Give me De La Cruz to stay hot and go deep.
Nick Castellanos (+550)
The Mets (16-7) took care of business in last night's series opener against the Phillies (13-10), notching their fifth straight victory. Tonight's game features a pitching matchup between Cristopher Sanchez and Griffin Canning. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY.
Canning has been serviceable this season, entering the new week with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP across four starts (21 innings). However, I'm not buying that he's completely turned things around from his 5.19 ERA and 1.63 HR/9 rate from last season with the Angels.
There's a good chance the Phillies tee off on Canning tonight. The current roster is slashing .286/.400/.476 against him over 21 at-bats. That includes Nick Castellanos, who is 2-for-8 (.250) against him with a triple and a double. Castellanos was the most-bet hitter to go yard yesterday, and he turned in an 0-for-4 day. I'm going back to the well tonight. Give me Castellanos to hit his fourth homer of the season.