MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/23)
The MLB rolls out a full 15-game slate tonight, and if you're looking for some longshot prop bets, you've come to the right place. Below, I've listed my four favorite To Hit a Home Run prop bets, each paying at least +190.
Here's who I think touches 'em all tonight in the MLB.
Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Christopher Morel (+190) & Ian Happ (+425)
The Cubs and Astros open up a three-game midweek series tonight, and it should be an entertaining series between two playoff hopefuls. J.P. France gets the nod for Houston, while Chicago counters with Jordan Wicks. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago.
France has struggled mightily to begin the 2024 campaign, going 0-2 with a 7.08 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. He has been susceptible to the long ball, conceding three home runs over 20.1 IP. That translates to a 1.33 HR/9 rate, which is slightly elevated from last year's mark of 1.25.
I have a pair of Cubs I'm playing to go deep tonight. First, I'll take Christopher Morel, who's launched three homers to start the 2024 season. Second, it's Ian Happ, who has just one bomb this year. While these aren't great power numbers, the two Chicago hitters have excellent head-to-head numbers against the downward-trending France. Morel is 2-2 (1.000) against the right-hander with a solo home run, while Happ is 2-2 (1.000) with a pair of doubles. Both hitters boast an OPS north of 2.500 against France, and with the hurler's current form, I think at least one of them goes yard tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt (+370)
The Cardinals snapped a four-game slide last night, taking down the Diamondbacks in a 5-3 affair. The National League foes are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Tommy Henry and Steven Matz. First pitch is set for 7:45 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo.
Henry's set to make his fifth start of the year tonight, and the left-hander hasn't been sharp, going 0-1 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. The 26-year-old has allowed three home runs over 18.1 innings of work, which translates to a HR/9 rate of 1.47.
Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt, the 2022 NL MVP, hasn't gotten out to an MVP-caliber start this season. He's hitting just .195 with a pair of big flies. However, “Goldy” has excelled against LHP this season, going 6-15 (.400) with an OPS of .926. He's 1-2 (.500) against Henry with a home run. With a +370 payout, I think it's worth a sprinkle on the first baseman to go deep.
Gunnar Henderson (+240)
Let's head out west to wrap up our home run betting escapade, where the Orioles look for their fourth straight win. They'll take on the Angels for a second straight night, where they notched a 4-2 victory in the series opener. Grayson Rodriguez takes the ball for the O’s, while the Halos opt for Griffin Canning. First pitch is set for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Calif.
This is easily my favorite home run prop of the day. Gunnar Henderson has looked fantastic out of the gate this season, hitting .289 with six dingers (fifth). His .928 OPS is the 16th-highest mark in the MLB.
Furthermore, Henderson has owned Canning in the past, going 4-6 (.667) against the right-hander with a home run and a triple. Canning enters tonight's game at 0-3, bringing in an 8.05 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The Los Angeles starter owns a 2.37 HR/9 rate, which is very inflated. However, that number was 1.56 in 2023 and 2.01 in 2021, so he's extremely prone to giving up bombs. Let's take Henderson to touch 'em all tonight at Angel Stadium.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: