MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/13)
The MLB season churns ahead on Tuesday, as the league rolls out a full 15-game slate for us to navigate from a betting perspective. I'm heading to the prop sheet to try and cash some longshot player props. Below you can find my top three home run prop bets in the MLB tonight.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Spencer Torkelson (+750)
The Tigers (27-15) are on an absolute heater to start the 2025 campaign, and they hammered the Red Sox (22-21) 14-2 in last night's series-opening contest. Boston will turn to Brayan Bello to try and bounce back tonight, while Detroit opts for Tyler Holton. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI.
At the baseline level, Bello has been excellent for the Red Sox this season, bringing in a 2.01 ERA in four starts (22.1 innings). However, his xERA and FIP are 5.56 and 5.58, respectively, pointing to potential negative regression. As for his performance in terms of home runs, the right-hander enters with a 1.21 HR/9 rate and a 21.4% HR/FB mark.
I'll go ahead and ride with Spencer Torkelson to jack one tonight. The first baseman leads the team with 10 tanks, and he's also 2-for-2 (1.000) against Bello with a pair of singles. The team as a whole is slashing .317/.349/.439 against Bello, so they're primed to keep the run production coming tonight at home. Give me Torkelson to touch’em all.
Jonathan Aranda (+500)
The Rays (18-22) head north to open up a divisional series, where they'll take on the Blue Jays (20-20) for three games. This American League East showdown features a pitching matchup between Shane Baz and Jose Berrios. First pitch is slated for 7:07 p.m. ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.
The Rays are just 26th in home runs this season (32), but I do think it's worth taking a flier on Jonathan Aranda to crank one out of the park tonight. The 26-year-old has been on a tear this season, ranking fifth in batting average (.342) and seventh in OPS (.981). He has five home runs, including one in the last six games.
Aranda will be looking to deposit one into the bleachers against Berrios, who brings in an elevated 1.54 HR/9 rate this season. The right-hander conceded two big flies last time out against the Angels in a 5-4 loss. Finally, it's worth noting that Aranda is 4-for-8 (.500) against Berrios with a pair of home runs. I'll be looking to play him in the total bases prop (2+ at +135 odds), as well as sprinkling on the first baseman to go deep.
Willy Adames (+500)
Arizona (22-20) collected a 2-1 victory last night against San Francisco (24-18), which came courtesy of a pair of Corbin Carroll solo home runs. The divisional foes are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Brandon Pfaadt and Robbie Ray. This contest gets underway at 9:45 p.m. ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA.
Willy Adames hasn't found much success during his time in the Bay, but that could change against Brandon Pfaadt and an Arizona bullpen that's a certified liability. Adames is hitting just .218, but he does have four home runs out of the gate in 2025.
Mainly, I love this matchup due to the head-to-head numbers. Adames is 3-for-4 (.750) against Pfaadt with a home run and a double. The Arizona hurler owns a 1.35 HR/9 rate, and his barrel% of 9.4% is up from 8.1% last season.
Adames and the rest of the hitters in tonight's game will also get a boost from Mother Nature, as the wind will be blowing out to dead center at 12.5 miles per hour (MPH) at first pitch. At +500 odds, it's worth tossing a few bucks on Adames to leave the yard.