MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/20)
We're onto a new week, which means there's new money to be made on the diamond. I'm heading to the prop sheet, and below I've listed three players primed to go yard.
Here are my top three home run prop bets for Tuesday, May 20th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Spencer Steer (+550)
The Reds (25-24) took care of the Pirates (15-33) in last night's series opener, winning 7-1 in the divisional matchup. The two sides are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching battle between Nick Martinez and Bailey Falter. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA.
The Reds have been crushing the ball over the last seven days, ranking first in ISO (.240) and second in home runs (11). One of those bombs belongs to Spencer Steer, who now has four tanks on the year, and five extra-base hits over the last seven games. He's hitting just .209, but is riding a seven-game hitting streak, raising his average by 20+ points from its low of .185.
Steer will be looking to go yard against Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter. The right-hander has been decent for the Pirates, bringing in a 4.02 ERA (57th) and a 1.21 WHIP (41st). He owns a modest 1.15 HR/9 rate. This bet is all about the head-to-head numbers. Cincinnati is slashing .383/.464/.700 against Falter over 60 at-bats, which includes Steer going 7-for-14 (.500) with two doubles and a home run. The Reds are primed for another offensive breakout, and I like this +550 play on Steer to clear the outfield wall.
Javier Baez (+600)
Two of the hottest teams in the MLB are squaring off in a midweek series, and it was the Cardinals (27-21) who emerged with an 11-4 victory over the Tigers (31-17) last night. Game two of the series pits Tarik Skubal against Erick Fedde. First pitch is set for 7:45 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO.
Javier Baez is having a little bit of a resurgence this season, hitting .291 (31st) with six home runs (79th) and 28 RBI (27th). The outfielder has seen five of his big flies come this month, and he hit one as recently as Friday against the Blue Jays. I like him at this price of +600 to go deep against the Red Birds.
Baez has seen Erick Fedde well in the past, as he's 4-for-8 (.500) against him with a couple of home runs and a double. Fedde (3.44 ERA) has done well to keep the ball in the yard (0.52 HR/9 rate), so this is mostly a spot where I like the hitter's form and head-to-head data. Plus, Mother Nature will have a hand in this game, as Swish Analytics predicts 11+ miles per hour (MPH) winds out to center field at first pitch. Let's take a flier on Baez to go yard at +600.
Bryce Harper (+320)
Let's wrap things up in the Mile High City, where the Phillies (29-18) look to build on a 9-3 dismantling of the lowly Rockies (8-39). Jesus Luzardo gets the nod for Philadelphia, while Colorado counters with Antonio Senzatela. This National League contest gets underway at 8:40 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
Bryce Harper has been mashing recently, going 8-for-14 (.571) over his last four games. That includes a 2-4 night at the dish on Monday. His seven home runs this year are the 62nd-most in the MLB, but anyone who watches baseball regularly knows Harper is always a threat to go yard. I'll play him tonight at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.
The Phillies have dominated Senzatela in the past, as the current roster is slashing .362/.409/.550 against him over 80 at-bats. That includes Harper, who is 5-for-15 (.333) against the right-hander with a couple of nukes and a double. Senzatela (6.39 ERA) has been prone to conceding the long ball this year, as he enters the new week with a HR/9 rate of 1.85. Philadelphia should rack up the runs once again tonight, and I expect the red-hot Harper to get in on the action.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: