MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (9/9)
Cal Raleigh continues to distance himself in the home run race, as he blasted a pair of homers over the weekend to increase his total to 53 on the campaign. Up next are the National League's Kyle Schwarber (49) and Shohei Ohtani (48), as well as three other players with 40+ bombs.
I don't have any of the chalk sluggers to go yard tonight, but I do have a few guys with sneaky pop that have been producing this season. Below, you'll find my top three home run prop bets tonight.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
George Springer (+295)
Let's pick it up in the Great White North, where the Astros (78-66) and Blue Jays (82-61) open up a marquee series. Toronto has yet to announce a starting pitcher, but it's confirmed that Houston will send Luis Garcia to the mound. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.
Luis Garcia has only made one start this year, and it was of the quality variety. The right-hander held the Angels to three earned runs over 6.0 innings. However, he conceded two home runs in the 8-3 victory, bringing his HR/9 rate to 3.00. Over his last 35 starts (dating back to the beginning of 2023) Garcia has posted a slightly inflated HR/9 rate of 1.32.
I'm locking in former Astro George Springer to go deep tonight. The outfielder has hit for power against Garcia in the past, going 3-for-7 (.429) against him with two home runs and a double. Overall, Springer has 27 big flies on the year, which is 25th in the Majors. He's hitting .301 (sixth) and has the third-best OPS (.942) in 2025. Springer has sneakily been putting together a powerful 2025 campaign, and I think he's primed to register his fourth home run in six games tonight.
Byron Buxton (+240)
The Twins (64-80) cruised to an easy 12-3 victory over the Angels (67-77) last night, courtesy of a couple of Royce Lewis yabos. The American League foes are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Zebby Matthews and Kyle Hendricks. First pitch is slated for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA.
Byron Buxton etched his name into Minnesota history books over the weekend, joining Kirby Puckett as the only other Twin with 30+ homers and 20+ steals in a single season. Buxton has posted a 30-21 season in the respective categories, and we still have roughly 20 games left this season. His 30 home runs are the 12th-most in the Majors, and his at-bats per home run rate of 14.0 is ninth-best.
Buxton will be looking to tee off against Los Angeles' Kyle Hendricks (4.81 ERA, 1.45 HR/9). The Twins' current roster has seen him well in the past, slashing .321/.387/.536 over 28 at-bats. As for Buxton specifically, he's 2-for-7 (.286) with a home run. Factor in that the Angels' relief staff is 29th in home runs allowed (86), and it appears that Buxton should have plenty of opportunities to deposit one into the bleachers tonight.
Manny Machado (+300)
Let's head a bit south of Anaheim to close out our betting card tonight, where the Reds (72-72) will take on the Padres (79-65). Zack Littell gets the nod for Cincinnati, while Michael King will toe the rubber for San Diego. This National League contest gets underway at 9:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA.
Manny Machado has homered twice in his last five games, bringing him to 23 home runs (47th) on the season. He hasn't gone yard against Cincinnati's Zack Littell, but he is 4-for-9 (.444) against him with three extra-base hits. As a whole, the Padres are slashing .342/.370/487 against the right-hander over a 76-at-bat sample size. Littell has been serviceable this year with a 3.81 ERA (27th), but his HR/9 rate is a lofty 1.85. The starter has allowed seven home runs across his last three outings, including a four-home run night against the Blue Jays in his latest start. Give me Machado at 3/1.