MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/30)
Below you will find our best MLB home run prop picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 30th.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Matt Olson (+275) & Austin Riley (+285)
Chase Dollander is on the bump for the Colorado Rockies, and while he was one of my favorite prospects coming into 2025, he has had a rough welcome to the Majors.
In four starts, the right-hander is 1-3 with a 7.91 ERA while allowing eight home runs. As expected with Coors Field as his home, his home stats have been even worse, posting a 1-1 record with a 10.00 ERA.
From what I have seen early on, Dollander relies too much on his fastball, throwing it nearly 55% of the time. The rookie needs to learn to mix up his pitches better, especially when he is ahead in the count. That will come with experience, but today's matchup with the Braves may cause more growing pains.
While every big-leaguer is expected to heat a traditional fastball in the zone, Matt Olson is one of the best.
Among qualified hitters, Olson ranks 10th in slugging rate, 11th in wOBA, sixth in xLG%, fourth in xwOBA and 14th in hard-hit% against opposing fastballs. While Olson's home run numbers are a bit low to start the season, all four of his dingers have come on the fastball.
Freddie Freeman (+380)
Freddie Freeman has been on a tear over the last week, batting .381 with eight hits, including two doubles. While there haven’t been any dingers, he has a great matchup against Cal Quantrill.
In his career against the Marlins starter, Freeman is 8-for-15 with two doubles and one home run. I expect Freeman's hot streak to continue and feature at least one long ball in tonight's game.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: