MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/9)
Below you will find our best MLB home run prop picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 9th.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyler Soderstrom (+475) & Brent Rooker (+380)
We are heading to Sutter Health Park for today's home run props. The temporary home of the A’s has been a launching pad early this season. Over the first games played here, there has been a total of 67 runs scored (13.4 per game) and 18 home runs (3.6 per game).
Padres starter Randy Vasquez has yet to give up a long ball in 2025, and his 1.69 ERA looks impressive on the surface. But when looking a little deeper, his expected ERA (xERA) is up to 5.75, which suggests he’s not pitching as good as the box score indicates.
Sutter Health Park is a hitter’s paradise and should show his flaws, which include a 47% fly ball rate. Vasquez is not a strikeout pitcher, owning a 4,22 K/9 this year while posting a 5,26 K/9 last season, some of the lowest numbers among qualified pitchers. The righty allows a lot of contact. In a ballpark like this, it does not bode well.
Tyler Soderstrom has taken the league by storm and is currently tied with Aaron Judge for the league lead in home runs (six apiece).
Brent Rooker and Soderstrom rank first and second in hard-hit% on the Athletics and pose great matchups against an overachieving Vasquez.
Kyle Tucker (+475)
Tyler Mahle is on the bump for the Rangers. He has the challenge of taming one of the hottest offenses in the league in the Chicago Cubs.
Mahle is another pitcher whose numbers look good on the surface, but like an iceberg, it’s the stuff underneath the surface that may be a bit concerning.
In two starts, Mahle is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA. That looks great. But let's look at some advanced metrics. Mahle has an xERA of 5.79 and an xFIP of 4.90. What do those numbers mean? In short, he isn’t pitching as well as that 1.35 ERA indicates. Also, his 5.15 SIERA is another indicator that some regression will be coming for Mr. Mahle.
Does this mean he's about to give up 10 home runs today? No, but it means we can try and take advantage of the regression when it does happen.
Kyle Tucker has had no issue adapting to his new home in Chicago, belting five homers in his first two weeks as a Cub. Today’s matchup against Mahle suits Tucker well.
Mahle relies heavily on two pitchers, his fastball and sinker. Tucker owns a .486 ISO against fastballs over the last two seasons, and three of his five home runs this season have come against the heater.