MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Friday (6/20)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let's dive into the top MLB home run props, picks and predictions for Friday's action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, June 20th.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Picks
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+350 on BetMGM)
Fernando Tatis Jr. is putting up All-Star numbers this season. Though he's cooled off in the power department lately, the San Diego Padres rightfielder still has 13 home runs. He's also on pace for his most dingers since 2021, when he hit 42 homers. Tatis now gets a favorable home matchup on Friday night.
Michael Lorenzen will start for the Kansas City Royals today. The right-hander has a shaky 4.91 ERA this year with 14 home runs allowed through 14 starts. He's also been notably worse on the road with a 5.94 ERA. Lorenzen has given up a lofty 2.11 HR/9 rate in his away starts, featuring 11 homers allowed across nine road outings.
Lorenzen has been slightly worse against right-handed hitters this year, with a .275 batting average and .820 OPS allowed in the split. He's also struggled lately with a 6.82 ERA over his past six starts.
Meanwhile, Tatis has great numbers at home and against right-handed pitching. At home this season, he has a .291 batting average, .535 slugging rate, .916 OPS and .220 ISO. Against righties, he has a .302 batting average, .522 slugging rate, .898 OPS and .244 ISO. How about at home against right-handers? Tatis is hitting .316 with a .602 slugging rate, .998 OPS and .286 ISO in the split.
Twelve of Tatis’ 13 home runs have come against righties so far this season. Tatis hasn't homered since late May, but he's still been hitting well - .309 over the past 15 games and .385 over the past seven. Plus, San Diego hasn't played at home much over the past month.
Let's bank on Tatis taking Lorenzen deep in today's matchup. He's due to hit a home run soon, and it's a good sign that he's swinging the bat well right now.
Nick Kurtz (+440 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
There aren't many starting pitchers worth targeting to allow home runs tonight. One that stands out, though, is Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee. He's given up 14 home runs through 14 starts, but his road numbers are what stand out.
Bibee has a 4.84 ERA and 6.14 FIP on the road with an .814 OPS and .353 wOBA allowed on the road this year. Compare that to a 2.50 ERA at home with a .618 OPS and .272 wOBA allowed. The Guardians starter has also allowed 11 homers through eight road starts, compared to just three in six home outings.
There are several Athletics worth considering to go deep in tonight's matchup, especially in the hitter-friendly ballpark. Let's go with the rookie Nick Kurtz. He has multiple splits in his favor, and there's clear value.
Kurtz's home/road and righty/lefty splits are drastic. He's batting .283 with a .586 slugging rate, .922 OPS and .303 ISO against right-handed pitching. On the flip side, he has a .143 batting average, .179 slugging rate, .384 OPS and .036 ISO versus lefties. Plus, all eight of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers.
At home, Kurtz is batting .308 with a .631 slugging rate, 1.004 OPS and .323 ISO. If we combine the splits, the Athletics first baseman boasts a .354 average, .771 slugging rate, 1.186 OPS and .417 ISO at home versus righties this year. Those are some elite numbers for the left-handed hitting Kurtz.
Bibee, meanwhile, has given up eight of 14 homers to lefty hitters this year. He's also allowed a high 1.85 HR/9 rate in the split thus far.