MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Friday (7/4)
Happy Fourth of July! The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let's dive into the top MLB home run props, picks and predictions for today's action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, July 4th.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Byron Buxton (+210) To Hit A Home Run
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Zack Littell has been very homer-prone all season long. He's given up a league-high 23 homers through 17 starts so far, and his 1.98 HR/9 rate is the third-worst among qualified MLB starters. Let's fade Littell today with our first home run pick.
The Rays right-hander will take on the Minnesota Twins on the road here. We have a few options to choose from, but Byron Buxton stands out to go deep.
Buxton has 19 homers on the year, and he's been on a major power surge lately. The Twins outfielder has eight home runs in his past 15 games with a .288 batting average, .729 slugging rate and 1.083 OPS in this stretch. He's feeling it at the plate right now and can easily keep it going in a favorable home matchup.
Littell has allowed 15 home runs over eight road starts this season, averaging almost two per game. Meanwhile, Buxton is batting .284 with a .603 slugging rate and .978 OPS at home with nine homers in 32 home games. He's also hit 15 of his 19 home runs against right-handed pitching this year.
Plus, Buxton is due to go deep again soon. He hasn't done so in four games, which matches his longest homer drought during his current hot streak over the past month. That's just a cherry on top, but the matchup and Buxton's current form are enough to go off.
Heliot Ramos (+265) To Hit A Home Run
Let's target another homer-prone pitcher for our second home run prediction. Athletics left-hander JP Sears has allowed 18 home runs through 17 starts this year. Plus, his 1.87 HR/9 rate is the fourth-worst among qualified MLB starters.
Sears has a rough 5.09 ERA and 5.18 FIP this season. He's also been notably worse at home with a 6.68 ERA and 12 homers allowed over seven home starts. The Athletics' hitter-friendly park in Sacramento has not been kind to him.
Sears has given up 16 of his 18 home runs to right-handed hitters. He's also allowing a .654 slugging rate and 1.018 OPS to righties at home thus far. On that note, 10 of his 12 homers allowed at home have come against righties.
The San Francisco Giants admittedly don't have many power options to choose from. Still, Heliot Ramos is worth considering with some key splits in his favor here. First, he's hit a team-high 13 home runs on the year.
Ramos is slumping a bit lately, batting just .200 over the past seven games. Still, a trip to a favorable road park against a pitcher like Sears is too good to ignore. At least Ramos has an .822 OPS on the road and an .825 OPS versus left-handed pitching this year.
The Giants outfielder also has a .215 ISO against lefties, compared to a .163 ISO versus right-handers. He owns a .208 ISO on the road as well. It's a good spot to bank on Ramos taking Sears deep.