MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Friday (Tigers vs. Mariners)
The 2025 MLB postseason rolls on with an American League Division Series (ALDS) Game 5 matchup on Friday night. Let's dive into the top MLB home run props, picks and predictions as the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners face off in this elimination game.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right batter to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, October 10th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cal Raleigh (+320)
Cal Raleigh is locked in at the plate right now. The Mariners catcher is batting .438 (7-for-16) with a 1.188 OPS over the first four games of this series against the Tigers. He smacked a home run in Game 3 and has 11 total bases already.
Let's back the American League MVP contender to go deep in Friday's Game 5 winner-take-all matchup. Of course, facing Tarik Skubal will be a tough task. Yet, Raleigh's swinging a hot bat, and he has some splits in his favor here.
Raleigh also ended the regular season on a hot streak. Over the final 15 games, he hit .316 with a .772 slugging rate, 1.181 OPS, and seven home runs. The MVP candidate has carried that right into the ALDS as he looks to send Seattle onto the next round.
With the left-handed Skubal on the mound, the switch-hitting Raleigh will bat from the right side. That just happens to be his better split. In the regular season, Raleigh hit .281 with a .681 slugging rate and 1.032 OPS against lefties, while smacking 22 home runs.
Skubal has pitched well this postseason, and he's the eventual American League Cy Young winner. There's no denying how tough a matchup this is. Yet, Skubal isn't immune to the home run. He gave up 18 across 31 starts this season, and he just coughed up two to Jorge Polanco in Game 2 of this series. Plus, for what it's worth, Raleigh has homered off Skubal in the past.
Kerry Carpenter (+392)
On the Tigers' side of things, Kerry Carpenter is the pick to leave the yard tonight for a few reasons. First off, George Kirby is on the mound for Seattle tonight. That's good news for Carpenter.
In Game 1, Carpenter took Kirby deep in the fifth inning. That continued some ridiculous head-to-head numbers against the Mariners right-hander. In their careers, the lefty-swinging Carpenter is now 5-for-11 against Kirby with all five hits being home runs.
There's the real possibility that Kirby and the Mariners choose to pitch around Carpenter or just walk him, considering that success. However, the opportunity to go deep could be there in the first inning or in the latter frames against a reliever.
Carpenter has gone hitless in the three games since that series-opening homer. That's not ideal. Yet, he's worth taking a shot on if/when he faces Kirby today. During the regular season, Carpenter had a .512 slugging rate and .812 OPS versus righties. Meanwhile, Kirby has worse numbers versus lefty hitters.