MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Monday (6/16)
It’s slim pickings for sports bettors on Monday with just seven MLB games on the schedule. However, there’s still value to be had from a home run prop betting perspective. An abundance of dependable sluggers and advantageous showdowns can be found on the small slate.
Here’s a look at three players worth backing to send a ball beyond the fence on Monday, June 16th.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Hunter Goodman (+310)
The Nationals have been failing to limit the long ball as of late. Washington is one of six squads to concede double-digit home runs in the past week. Jake Irvin will aim to buck the trend in his home start on Monday, but it won’t be easy. The 28-year-old has surrendered a blast in nine of his 14 outings and ranks 344th out of 367 qualified pitchers in barrel eate (12.9%). Opposing hitters are exploiting Irvin’s mistakes.
Colorado’s Hunter Goodman finds himself in a situation where he has thrived all season. The young catcher has slashed .296/.336/.598 with eight homers across 36 away contests and has posted a team-high .846 OPS against right-handed pitching. Take note that Goodman’s hard-hit rate of 51.3% is a top-30 mark among MLB sluggers. Trust him to go yard in the nation’s capital and continue building a compelling All-Star case.
Trea Turner (+800)
It’s safe to say Sandy Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery has not gone to plan. The former Cy Young winner has logged a dismal 7.14 ERA and 1.49 WHIP through 13 starts (3-7 record). What sticks out about Alcantara’s struggles is that his strikeout rate sits at a career-low 17.7%, while his average exit velocity registers at a career-high 90.1 miles per hour (MPH). He is yielding hard contact instead of missing bats.
Alcantara is set to battle the Phillies at loanDepot park. Philadelphia’s lineup pounded the Miami hurler to the tune of six runs (two home runs) over two innings back on April 18th. Shortstop Trea Turner has been electric in night games, recording a .333/.385/.506 slash line to go with six homers. The three-time All-Star is also 13-for-37 with a dinger and two doubles facing Alcantara. Bank on Turner to keep mashing as Philly’s leadoff man.
Ryan O’Hearn (+550)
There hasn’t been much for Baltimore fans to be happy about this campaign. The emergence of Ryan O’Hearn is certainly a welcome surprise, though. The third-year Oriole sports the eighth-highest OPS (.893) and the seventh-highest launch angle sweet-spot rate (42.1%) in the American League. A powerful swing has helped O’Hearn tally 10 home runs. His expected return from an ankle injury on Monday is a key offensive boost.
A matchup with Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot provides a clear avenue for O’Hearn to tee off. Pepiot has allowed a .508 slugging rate on his four-seamer, which is significant since it’s the pitch he relies on most at 45.5%. O’Hearn is slugging an impressive .550 while whiffing on only 10.7% of his swings versus fastballs. Overall, Pepiot has been tagged for 11 homers during nine home starts. Targeting his opponents is the move to make in this market.