MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Monday (Mariners vs. Blue Jays)
Win or go home. The 2025 MLB postseason continues on Monday with a thrilling Game 7 showdown in the American League Championship Series (ALCS). The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays will put it all on the line for a spot in the World Series. It is time for sluggers to step up, and the most exciting way to do that is by crushing a homer. Here's a look at three players worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence in Monday’s best MLB home run props & bets.
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Monday's Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+330)
It has been a run to remember for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The first baseman’s 384-foot blast in Toronto’s Game 6 victory set a franchise record for home runs during a single postseason (six). Overall, Guerrero has slashed a ridiculous .462/.532/1.000 with nine extra-base knocks and 12 RBI in 10 playoff contests. Note that eight of those 10 performances featured zero strikeouts. The five-time All-Star is seeing the ball incredibly well.
Guerrero’s power is undeniable. After all, he ranks as a top-30 pro in hard-hit rate (50.7%) and average exit velocity (92 miles per hour) this campaign. George Kirby will start Game 7 for the Mariners. The right-hander most recently gave up eight earned runs in a disastrous Game 3 outing. Guerrero homered off Kirby to center field in that clash. Another dinger on Monday night could cement him as the ALCS MVP.
Josh Naylor (+630)
Let’s shift gears to a bat in the visiting dugout that continues to fly under the radar. First baseman Josh Naylor has been reliable throughout Seattle’s playoff run, posting a .341/.383/.591 slash line with three home runs and two stolen bases. Keep in mind that he has also batted .314 across 12 career games at Rogers Centre. Targeting someone who makes consistent contact, yet also has the strength to tee off, is a great move in this market.
Shane Bieber draws the nod for the Blue Jays on Monday. The veteran hurler has surrendered a homer in seven of his nine starts this year. To dive even deeper, Bieber has allowed a career-high 48.2% hard-hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate in his limited action on the mound. Naylor’s upside rises when considering he has gone yard versus three arms in the Toronto bullpen (Louis Varland, Brendon Little and Braydon Fisher).
Addison Barger (+750)
Picks for Game 7 wouldn’t be complete without a longshot option. Unexpected heroes have been rising to the occasion in the postseason for decades. Home run swings like Howie Kendrick of the Nationals (World Series Game 7 in 2019), Kike Hernandez of the Dodgers (National League Championship Series Game 7 in 2020) and Mike Zunino of the Rays (American League Championship Series Game 7 in 2020) stick out as recent examples. I like the chances of Toronto outfielder Addison Barger joining that list.
Barger flashed some pop when he smashed a slider down in the zone for a 403-foot homer on Sunday. The Washington native’s elite bat speed (75.9 miles per hour) means he can connect the barrel to the ball on even the nastiest of pitches. Monday will be George Kirby’s first road start in these playoffs. He finished the regular season with a lackluster 5.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 11 away outings. Trust Barger to exploit a stellar matchup.