MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Saturday (6/7)
The 2025 MLB season continues today with the sun shining down and baseball to bet on. Saturday's slate features plenty of games as we continue on a solid start to the season, hitting some metaphorical and literal longshots already. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run props, picks and predictions for this weekend's matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball, and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because home run odds differ widely across sportsbooks. Here are some of my favorite players to hit a home run in today's games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | Season: 7-23 (+15.3 Units) | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Nick Castellanos (+475)
It's never easy betting Nick Castellanos, but things are lining up nicely for him to go yard today. Andrew Heaney is taking the bump for Pittsburgh, and Castellanos is 6-for-11 off him in his career. In the last month, Castellanos is batting nearly .300 and is still due for a bump in hits of the extra-base variety.
Castellanos’ slugging percentage improves against lefties, and if Heaney gets pulled early, the Pirates’ bullpen ranks in the bottom seven in league ERA. I know it's a meme to bet on him, but he is the cleanup hitter in the Phillies’ lineup and will get ample opportunity to go deep. Remember to shop around because I'm guessing you can find longer odds.
Jorge Polanco (+360)
While Jorge Polanco's batting average won't stand out, what's clear is that all 10 of Polanco's longballs have come against righties, and he's already homered against Jack Kochanowicz in his career. The Angels starter has struggled with a 5.34 ERA and has allowed 10 home runs in his 12 starts already.
The Angels’ bullpen has allowed the most home runs this entire season, so Polanco will get his opportunities. Expecting him to bat second, that's five shots against a pitcher he has a positive experience against and a subpar bullpen. Even with the shorter odds, I'm still happy riding with the switch-hitter here.
Gunnar Henderson (+295)
Luis Severino has faced Gunnar Henderson six times and has allowed a hit in five of them, including a home run. Severino's home ERA this year is a whopping 6.99 compared to a 0.87 road ERA. Severino has also allowed all his home runs on the road.
Henderson has walloped righties, with a .931 OPS against them and seven long balls. The splits and history set up too well, so go for gold.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: