MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Saturday (7/12)
The 2025 MLB season continues on tonight with the sun shining down and baseball to bet on. Saturday's slate features plenty of games as we continue on a solid start to the season, hitting some metaphorical and literal longshots already. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for this weekend's matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds can provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because HR odds differ widely across books. Here are some of my favorite players to get a home run in today's games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-2 | Season: 7-31 (+8.6U) | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
TJ Friedl (+390)
It always feels like a cop out when I take player props opposing the Colorado Rockies but that's always going to be the first team I target, home or away, when it comes to home run props. The Rockies have allowed 127 home runs as a team and 52 from relievers, ranking second and third in MLB, respectively. TJ Friedl in the leadoff spot is going to get his looks and the splits are already favorable for the Reds center fielder. Bradley Blalock takes the bump for Colorado and he has been awful against lefties. The Rockies starter has allowed a 1.164 OPS to lefties with four home runs in his limited appearances. On the same note, Friedl has a .807 OPS against righties compared to a .645 against southpaws with six of his eight long balls coming against righties. This is playing more so to the opportunity here and the fact that Friedl is slowly working his way out of his slump. Today is a good day to blow it open with a long ball.
Carlos Santana (+425)
For someone with double-digit long balls already this year I'm a little surprised by these odds, especially against the Chicago White Sox. Yesterday featured a double header with a rain delay where the second game went 11 innings. The bullpens are going to be shot. Even if both starters go deep there can very well be some late run scoring and I'm not so confident in either of these starters. Santana's power comes more from the left side of the plate, where he will face Sean Burke from. The switch hitter has already homered off the White Sox starter and is primed to get plenty of looks in the four spot. The Chicago righty struggles early in games so given the promising history and chance to face a depleted and sub-par bullpen is more than ideal for odds north of +400.
Vinnie Pasquantino (+500)
Finally today we have the Royals' first baseman who should take advantage of Frankie Montas going against him. For Pasquantino, I'm once again favoring splits over any specific history as I usually tend to lean towards. The Royals’ lefty sees right-handed pitchers well with an .825 OPS and 11 long balls against them this year. Montas has historically struggled against lefties, last year allowing 16 home runs compared to eight for righties. The Mets starter has also fared poorly on the road in the past and he's still getting his feet wet. Montas has made just three starts so far this season, allowing a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Someone's homering for Kansas City today and my bet is on Pasquantino.