MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Saturday (7/5)
The 2025 MLB season continues with the sun shining down and baseball to bet on. Saturday's slate features plenty of games as we continue on a solid start to the season, hitting some metaphorical and literal longshots already. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run props picks and predictions for this weekend's matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds can provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because HR odds differ widely across books. Here are some of my favorite players to get a home run in today's games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
Last Time: 0-3 | Season: 7-29 (+10.6U) | Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Alejandro Kirk (+500)
To start us off, we have the catcher for Toronto to go deep in the four spot. He's done so a handful of times already this season and has been solid of late, batting .302 in his last 13 games. He has a limited history against Jack Kochanowicz but it's promising. The Angels starter has struggled on the road, allowing a 5.56 ERA and 10 homers compared to five at home with similar innings pitched. He's allowed six home runs in his last six games with four of them coming in two road games. These are relatively long odds for a player that's seeing the ball well and who should get five at-bats. The Angels also have the fourth-worst bullpen in the league so if Kochanowicz get pushed out early that is good for Kirk. Maybe he'll even get a pair of long balls tonight but I'm keeping it simple with one homer.
Nolan Arenado (+390)
After the Cubs set a franchise record for number of home runs in a single game, I'm flipping the script here and going with some Cardinals to go deep in a home run friendly ballpark. Arenado hasn't exactly been electric but he's batting .280 in the last 20 games with three long balls. He's faced Drew Pomeranz over 18 times and has seen him well with a .313 batting average against. Arenado also has significantly better splits against lefties with a better OPS in his 99 plate appearances facing southpaws. The odds aren't as long as I'd hope but he's still a big name and always a threat to go deep, which I see him doing tonight.
Cody Bellinger (+390)
Finally tonight we have the former MVP in the Subway Series to go yard. Belly has been red hot of late with a hit in 14 of his last 15 games, batting .348 with a .949 OPS in that time frame. He gets to face Frankie Montas who has historically struggled against lefties, allowing an .866 OPS to them compared to a .616 OPS to righties in 2024. The Mets pitcher also got clobbered last time out so there's a good chance he doesn't have his stuff again today and the Yankees gets to see the Mets bullpen early. I'm riding the hot hand here and promising history for Bellinger.