MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Saturday (8/9)
Welcome to another day of baseball as we've reached the dog days of summer - after the trade deadline but before playoff races heat up. Still, there's baseball to be played, which means we get to keep betting on some home run odds. Saturday's slate features plenty of games as we continue a solid season, hitting some metaphorical and literal longshots. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run props and predictions for this weekend's matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball, and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds can provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because home run odds differ widely across sportsbooks. Here are some of my favorite players to hit a home run in today's games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-1 | Season: 10-35 (+13.1 Units) | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Ketel Marte (+340)
I know this Arizona-Colorado game isn't at Coors Field, but people don't give enough credit to Chase Field as a hitter-friendly park. It's ranked third in Baseball Savant's park factor over the past three seasons. Bradley Blalock takes the bump for Colorado, and he hasn't exactly been great with a 7.68 ERA, allowing eight home runs over his seven starts. Blalock struggles against lefties, allowing a .936 OPS to them.
Ketel Marte will be swinging from the left side, where he has hit 16 of his 21 home runs this year. He should be batting second. Corbin Carroll is a fine option here, too, but is also the biggest favorite in today's game to go deep. I figured to provide a little bit of value. Marte has only faced the Rockies starter once, so there isn't any history to go off of, but everything is lining up for Marte to tag one tonight.
Jesus Sanchez (+475)
Another game where we are valuing the park factor is the Yankees’ short porch in right field. Luis Gil is making his second start for the Yankees, and his first outing was... rough. He lasted just 3.1 innings, allowing five runs on five hits with four walks. No home runs were allowed, but a .357 opponent batting average is not a promising return.
Taking last year’s stats into account, the Yankees starter still gave up much better numbers to lefties versus righties. Jesus Sanchez has major splits in favor of facing righties, with nine of his 10 home runs coming off them. The former Marlin has hit the ground running with the Astros, starting with a five-game hitting streak. Still, the outfielder is due to go deep. I think this is where we see that happen.
Spencer Torkelson (+425)
Finally, we are backing Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson to take one deep off Los Angeles Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi. In the short history he has against the Angels starter, Torkelson is 2-for-4 with a home run and a double.
Torkelson also has a much better history against southpaws this year with a .961 OPS compared to .754. Torkelson ranks seventh in the American League in long balls at home, so I'm surprised this number isn't shorter given the history and splits. I'm jumping all over this one.