MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Sunday (8/24)
Discover our top MLB home run props, bets and picks for Sunday, August 24.
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Sunday's Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gunnar Henderson (+300) & Samuel Basallo (+360)
Spencer Arrighetti is on the mound for the Houston Astros as they look to complete the 4-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles.
Arrighetti is making his 4th since coming back from injury and he has not looked great. In his previous three starts, he is 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA while allowing 5+ runs in 2 of those three starts, including three home runs.
His xFIP of 5.59 and SIERA of 5.32 is the highest among today’s starts and has also allowed a FB% (Flay-Ball) of 42.9% and a LD% (Line-Drive) of 24.3%, among the highest of today's probable starters.
We are backing two of the better hitters in this Orioles lineup, as they look to avoid an embarrassing 4-game sweep in their own stadium.
Basallo was just rewarded with a huge contract extension and has done fairly well since being called up. In 19 at-bats against righties, he is batting .263 with 2 doubles. This is setting up to be an excellent matchup for the young catcher, in which he should have a good chance to leave the yard, hitting his first career MLB HR.
Bryce Harper (+145) & Max Kepler (+360)
Jake Irvin is on the mound and has been serving up meatballs all season long, allowing an 84% contact rate on all pitches this year, the second highest in the MLB.
His 29 HRs allowed is also the most among all MLB pitchers this year, and 18 of those HR have come off the bat of left-handed hitters.
The obvious choice would be Kyle Schwarber, but his odds at +125 are insane and provide no value.
Harper's odds at +145 are not much better, but I'd feel like I have to back one of these two guys due to the matchup with Jake Irvin.
Harper has had better numbers in his career against the righty and has slightly better odds.
Max Kepler is another guy who smashes righties with 12 of his 13 HRs coming against right-handed pitchers, plus in 7 at-bats against Irvin, Kepler has blasted 2 HRs. With his odds at being +360, it offers good value backing another lefty in this Phillies lineup.