MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Sunday (9/28)
Discover our top MLB home run props, bets and picks for Sunday, September 28th.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Colson Montgomery (+400)
Colson Montgomery quietly sets up well for hitting a home run against Brad Lord, thanks to how both players match up on fastballs and change-ups. Lord leans heavily on his four-seam fastball (54.4%) and change-up (20.7%) vs lefties, and both pitches have been vulnerable - his fastball has allowed six home runs with a .420 slugging rate and .193 ISO, while his change-up sits at a .153 ISO with a lower strikeout rate of 16.7%.
Against right-handed four-seamers, Montgomery owns a .203 ISO with four home runs, but the change-up profile is even stronger, where he posts a .229 ISO with two home runs, showing he sells out for power when he sees it.
On the rare occasion Lord throws a slider, look out. When Montgomery sees an opposing slider, they must look like beach balls as he owns a staggering .714 SO with five dingers.
Pete Alonso (+396)
Pete Alonso's home run prop is worth a look in this matchup against Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, thanks to his strong history in the matchup. Alonso is 5-for-17 lifetime against Cabrera - a solid .294 average - with three of those hits leaving the yard, giving him a staggering 17.6% home run rate in their head-to-head at-bats
Over his last 15 games, he's gone 18-for-58 with five long balls, including a home run in four straight games.
Alonso and the Mets are a win away from clinching the last postseason spot in the National League.
Let’s see if the Polar Bear can stay hot and lead the Mets to a much-needed victory.