MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Thursday (10/9)
The pressure is on. The 2025 MLB postseason continues on Thursday with a pair of Game 4 showdowns in the National League Division Series (NLDS) round. It is time for stars to step up, and the most exciting way to do that is by smashing a homer. Here’s a look at three players worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence in Thursday's best MLB home run props & bets.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Schwarber (+217)
A pair of Schwarbombs highlighted an 8-2 win for the Phillies on Wednesday. The long balls were the 57th and 58th of the year for Kyle Schwarber. They were also the 22nd and 23rd homers of his playoff career. That is the third-highest total in MLB history. It was a display of power that fans have been seeing since March. After all, the three-time All-Star is a top-three slugger in hard-hit rate (59.6%) and barrel rate (20.8%).
Tyler Glasnow will toe the slab for the Dodgers on Thursday. The veteran hurler has found success limiting home runs in 2025, though eight of the 10 he has surrendered have come at Dodger Stadium. The L.A. venue ranks fourth in Statcast’s offensive park factors over the last two seasons. Keep in mind that Glasnow is inducing a lackluster 22.1% chase rate. Expect Schwarber to wait for a pitch in the zone and demolish it.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+620)
Pete Crow-Armstrong was an early hero in Game 3 as his two-run single in the first inning put the Cubs up for good. The 23-year-old outfielder explained after the victory that, “it’s always nice having batter-pitcher matchup history.” Experience facing Quinn Priester paid off. Experience facing Milwaukee’s expected Game 4 starter Freddy Peralta could pay off, too. Crow-Armstrong is 6-for-13 with one home run and one double versus the Brewers ace.
Peralta was taken deep twice in Game 1 of this series. It increased his streak of outings with a homer allowed to five straight. It’s worth pointing out that Peralta has yielded a .737 OPS to batters hitting seventh in the batting order this campaign. That is both the highest mark of any spot in the order and where Crow-Armstrong has slotted in during all six Chicago postseason contests so far. A Crow-Armstrong dinger would cause an eruption at Wrigley Field.
Alex Call (+1180)
It can be tough to find favorable showdowns in small playoff slates. Often, All-Star pitchers are on the mound to begin games. That is the case in Los Angeles on Thursday as Cristopher Sanchez draws the start for Philadelphia. The crafty southpaw thrives at forcing soft contact and ground balls. However, Sanchez did concede two home runs in his most recent performance at Dodger Stadium on September 16th.
One of those homers came off the bat of Alex Call. It was his second career blast off Sanchez, which is tied with Teoscar Hernandez for the most on the L.A. roster. Call was acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline to hit against left-handers. That is why he started in Game 1 of the NLDS. The reserve outfielder singled and walked in two plate appearances against Sanchez in that 5-3 win. Call’s previous success makes it enticing to take a chance at these odds.