MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Thursday (6/5)
A pair of stars sit atop the home run leaderboard. Los Angeles' Shohei Ohtani and Seattle’s Cal Raleigh have racked up 23 jacks each. Of course, they are not the only ones showcasing a power stroke at the plate.
Here's a look at three sluggers worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence in Thursday’s best MLB home run bets.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Marcell Ozuna (+400)
To say Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt has struggled to limit hard contact would be an understatement. The young right-hander checks in outside of the top 340 qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate (50.3%), average exit velocity (92.5 miles per hour) and barrel rate (13.6%). Rival batters have torched Pfaadt for 12 home runs during his 12 outings and have gone yard off each of the five pitches in his arsenal in 2025.
Up next for Pfaadt is a road start in Atlanta. One of the Braves’ greatest weapons at home has been Marcell Ozuna. The three-time All-Star has slashed .302/.419/.481 with five homers across 30 games. Take note that Ozuna also boasts a team-high .862 OPS versus right-handed pitching and is the only Atlanta player who has taken Pfaadt deep before. This is a Thursday afternoon contest, so lock in a wager ahead of the early first pitch.
Corbin Carroll (+370)
There’s a second beneficial matchup to focus on at Truist Park. It comes in the other dugout as the Diamondbacks will battle Atlanta starter Grant Holmes. The second-year pro enters Thursday having surrendered at least one home run in six of his previous seven starts. Opponents have destroyed Holmes’ fastball this campaign, posting an imposing .685 slugging percentage to go with eight homers against the pitch.
Arizona’s Corbin Carroll sticks out here for a few reasons. The talented outfielder has recorded a ridiculous .704 slugging percentage when thrown a fastball and has barreled baseballs at the 13th-highest rate in the league (17.4%). A complete power surge from Carroll cements this pick’s upside. He has already tallied 18 dingers, which is a mark he did not reach until August 28th last season. Bettors should take advantage of an unleashed strength.
Nick Castellanos (+680)
Nick Castellanos’ 391-foot opposite taco to right center field served as Philadelphia’s lone run scored in a loss to Toronto on Wednesday. On the bright side, the moon shot added to the veteran’s impressive stats facing the Canadian franchise. Castellanos has logged a .316/.356/.587 slash line with 11 home runs and 16 doubles in 50 career clashes versus the Blue Jays. Maintaining success throughout 208 plate appearances is no easy task.
Thursday presents an opportunity for Castellanos to stay hot. After all, he is 10-for-31 with a homer and four doubles against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt and ranks 13th in launch-angle sweet spot percentage among MLB hitters (42.5%). Keep in mind that Bassitt has conceded multiple blasts in four of his past seven starts. Castellanos and the Phillies have a chance to tee off on someone, leaving too many pitches over the middle of the strike zone.