MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Thursday (7/31)
It's slim pickings for sports bettors on Thursday with just three MLB games on the schedule. However, there's still value to be had from an MLB home run props betting perspective. Several reliable sluggers and advantageous matchups can be found on the small slate. Here's a look at four players worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence on Thursday, July 31st.
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Thursday's Best MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Junior Caminero (+370) & Jonathan Aranda (+480)
Playing at Yankee Stadium can be fun for those at the plate, but it can be daunting for those on the mound. New York’s Marcus Stroman has posted a disastrous 7.11 ERA and 1.84 WHIP across five home starts. The veteran right-hander has surrendered at least one home run in four of those five outings. Focusing on Stroman remains a logical move in this market, considering he ranks 346th out of 360 pitchers in hard-hit rate (49.1%).
The Rays have a shot to tee off in this series finale on Thursday. Third baseman Junior Caminero sticks out as he leads Tampa Bay with 21 homers versus right-handed pitching and sports a .562 slugging rate in 38 day games. First baseman Jonathan Aranda is another pro to target since he boasts a .907 OPS against right-handers and checks in fifth among MLB batters in launch angle sweet-spot percentage (42.1%).
Elly De La Cruz (+300)
Carlos Carrasco will suit up for his fourth different team of his career when he takes the mound as a Brave on Thursday. The 38-year-old hurler disappointed in his short stint with the Yankees, logging a 5.91 ERA and conceding seven home runs over eight appearances. It’s worth mentioning that Carrasco has also been tagged for a career-high 29% fly ball rate in 2025. That is not ideal ahead of a trip to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Elly De La Cruz has been Cincinnati’s scariest offensive weapon. The Dominican phenom has crushed right-handed pitching by slashing .302/.394/.532 with 13 dingers and 48 RBI. Take note that opponents have registered a 1.442 OPS when putting the ball in play during a hitter’s count facing Carrasco. A little bit of patience could go a long way for De La Cruz. This is a great spot for the Reds star to snap his homer drought.
Randy Arozarena (Odds TBD)
Let’s cap these picks with a Mariner in a groove. Seattle’s Randy Arozarena enters Thursday having recorded 10 home runs and a .942 OPS in the last 30 days. Only Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) and Nick Kurtz (Athletics) have racked up more blasts in that span. Power has become an underrated aspect of Arozarena’s skill set, as his 52.4% hard-hit rate places him among the top 25 batters in baseball. He is a threat to go deep at any moment.
Texas’ Kumar Rocker will toe the slab at T-Mobile Park on Thursday night. The former Vanderbilt standout has failed to step up on the road this campaign, battling to a 9.91 ERA and 2.01 WHIP through seven away starts. Eight homers and a .681 slugging rate allowed in those outings show the extent of his struggles. Bettors can feel confident trusting Arozarena in a clash between a hot bat and an inconsistent arm.