MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Tuesday (10/7)
The MLB Divisional Round continues on Tuesday night with the American League teams returning to action. The two-game slate opens up with a pivotal Game 3 in Motown between the Mariners (1-1) and the Tigers (1-1), and concludes in the Bronx with the Yankees (0-2) trying to stave off elimination from the top-seeded Blue Jays (2-0).
From a sports betting perspective, I'm looking to nail a few longshot player props in the home run market. I've sifted through the numbers and matchups, narrowing in on three players who are primed to go deep. Here are my top MLB home run props and bets for Tuesday, October 7th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Eugenio Suarez (+498)
Let's pick it up in the Motor City, where we have a pitching matchup between Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty in the Mariners versus Tigers game. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI.
Jack Flaherty had some struggles this season, going 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP during the regular campaign. The right-hander logged a slightly inflated HR/9 rate of 1.29.
Flaherty has found some success against the Mariners, holding their current roster to a slash line of .238/.312/.465 over 101 at-bats. However, six of those 101 at-bats have been home runs. Three of the bombs belong to Eugenio Suarez, who is 6-for-25 (.240) against him overall. Suarez (49 regular-season home runs) closed the season on a home run-hitting frenzy, jacking four bombs in his final 11 games. He is always a threat to go deep, and at nearly 5-1 odds, it's worth a sprinkle on him.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+520)
The Yankees return home for Game 3, but they find themselves in an 0-2 hole and on the brink of elimination. They'll turn to Carlos Rodon in this do-or-die showdown, while the Blue Jays opt for Shane Bieber. First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY.
Getting a +520 payout on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to go yard seems like an absolute no-brainer in this spot. The superstar first baseman is destroying the baseball this postseason, going 6-for-9 (.667) with two home runs and six RBI. Guerrero has also owned Rodon in the past, going 10-for-17 (.588) against him with a homer and three doubles. Rodon is a solid starter, hence why we're getting the +520 payout, but I just can't pass up on those odds with the way Guerrero is swinging the bat.
Giancarlo Stanton (+263)
Keeping it in the same game, I'm also locking in New York's Giancarlo Stanton to deposit one into the outfield bleachers. Stanton finished the year with 24 home runs (57th) in just 77 games. Across 249 at-bats, that's a home run once every 10.4 at-bats. If he qualified, that would have been the second-best mark in the entire MLB (Raleigh, 10.1). Stanton hasn't homered yet in five postseason games, but he closed the year with three big flies in his final three regular-season games.
Stanton will take on Stane Bieber; he's only 3-for-15 (.200) against him. However, two of the hits (one home run, one double) were for extra bases. Bieber has also been susceptible to the long ball, registering a 1.79 HR/9 mark and a 21.1% HR/FB rate. Those are both the highest amongst today's starting pitchers.