MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Tuesday (3/31)
Welcome to my first Tuesday Home Run picks article for the 2026 MLB season. Today, I'll share my favorite players to go deep, along with a quick explanation of how I play these using FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday promotion-a 50 percent boost on any home run bet. You can follow my betting methods if you wish, but if you want only the picks, scroll down.
I am not the type of capper who is going to throw out 10-15 players who I think could hit home runs. First and foremost, you would need to have at least three or four players hit just to break even. Also, you would need the means to throw money at that many players. I try to limit my Dinger Tuesday exposure to one total unit of risk. That includes any parlays and round robins. Of course, you can bump that up a bit if you feel strongly on a particular day. But overall, considering that home runs are much less than a 50/50 proposition, I am not trying to go broke chasing longshots.
Once I select the players that I am targeting, I stagger my home run bets so that I only need one player to go deep in order for me to at least get my money back. For example, suppose your unit size is $100. If a player is +200 to homer, I would have to bet a minimum of $34 to break even on the $100 total. If I like two other players at +340 and +370, I would have to risk at least $23 and $22, respectively. That leaves a total of $21 left for any round robins and, of course, the parlay. In this scenario, I would most likely put $6 on each round robin and $3 on the parlay.
If you really want to swing for the fences, you could forego the round robins altogether and drop more on the parlay. The parlay won't hit often, but when it does, I can promise you it's a good time.
Now that I've explained my pricing, here are today's picks. I'm counting on a few veteran bats, two of whom started slow in 2026.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
Corey Seager (SS – TEX) (+410 at Fanatics)
For whatever reason, sportsbooks have been hesitant to post home run prices for the game between Texas and Baltimore. This price may fluctuate once other books post their prices in the morning. But I like Corey Seager to hit a home run tonight and think anything over +300 is a bargain.
Let's start with Baltimore's starting pitcher, Zach Eflin. Eflin allowed the highest home run rate in all of the Majors last year among 199 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings. To be fair, Eflin may not have been fully healthy, and recent reports suggest his velocity has improved from last season. But I am willing to trust Seager in a matchup that he has historically dominated.
Seager is 5-for-12 lifetime with two doubles and a home run against Eflin. The two did not meet during Eflin's down year in 2025, so Seager clearly feels comfortable in the box against him. Look for Seager to get the best of Eflin once again on Tuesday.
Marcell Ozuna (DH – PIT) (+375 at TheScoreBet)
Marcell Ozuna is just 1-for-12 to start the year, but I am going to cut him some slack. He faced Freddy Peralta and Chase Burns in two of his three starts. He should have a more favorable matchup on Tuesday when he faces Reds' hurler Brandon Williamson.
Williamson is making his first Big League appearance since 2024. He has struggled in his career with keeping the ball in the yard, especially at Great American Ballpark. Williamson has served up 14 longballs in just 60 career innings at home. 11 of the 14 have come off the bats of right-handed hitters.
Of course, Williamson isn't the only pitcher to suffer from gopher-itis at GABP. Cincinnati's home park has a three-year home run factor of 121 for right-handed hitters. That is the second-highest in all of baseball.
Williamson's pitch arsenal also should work to Ozuna's advantage. His primary offering to righties has been the cutter. Ozuna destroys cutters. Even in what was a down year overall for the former Brave, Ozuna slugged .792 versus cutters, with an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .818. In 2024, those numbers were .871 and .863, respectively. I like Ozuna to launch his first home run as a Pittsburgh Pirate on Tuesday.
Bryce Harper (1B – PHI) (+375, TheScoreBet)
I normally do not target hitters facing starting pitchers of the same handedness for home runs. However, Nationals starter PJ Poulin is just an opener, meaning Bryce Harper will most likely only face him once. Having said that, Harper profiles well against Poulin. Poulin features a four-seam fastball and a sweeper to left-handed batters. Harper slugged .592 and .615 on those pitches last year, with xSLG numbers of .622 and .613.
Once Poulin is out of the game, Washington is most likely to use Zack Littell to get through the middle innings. Littell gave up 36 home runs in 2025. That was the second-highest mark in MLB. To his credit, Littell attacks the zone. He only walked 32 hitters last year. If Littell would rather give up a home run than allow a free pass, who are we to say no?
This is also a favorable matchup for Harper, as Citizens Bank Park has MLB's highest HR factor for lefties in the last three years. It's a good spot for Harper's first homer in 2026.