MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (4/21)
I can't lie - last week was a rough one. It certainly was not the first time I have ever lost on a trio of home run bets. And, truth be told, it won't be the last. But usually there is at least a sweat involved. That moment when the ball leaves the bat, where you think, "There it goes!" only for the result to be a double off the wall or fly out to the warning track. This did not happen last week. There are 0-for-3s, and then there are 0-for-3s. Last week was unfortunately the latter. This is yet another reason why I stress the importance of bet sizing for home run props.
In any event, today is a new day. So, I am back with some more of my favorite home run bets for Tuesday, April 21. As always, these prices are subject to change, so choose wisely and strike while the iron is hot.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Home Run Props
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated)
Seiya Suzuki (+590 at FanDuel)
The matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs on Tuesday is an interesting one because it is the exact same pitching matchup we saw this past Wednesday when these teams squared off. Jesus Luzardo and Shota Imanaga will take the mound in Wrigley Field on Tuesday. While Seiya Suzuki did not go deep in that contest, I think we are getting some value on him to homer on Tuesday night.
Suzuki went 1-for-3 in last week's matchup with Luzardo but hit the ball hard twice: first, a 105.8 MPH groundout; then, a 110 MPH single. (He struck out in his other at-bat.) If he keeps making hard contact and elevates the ball, he could notch his first home run of the 2026 season. Suzuki was one of 15 Major Leaguers with at least 10 home runs off left-handed pitching last season, including six at home in just 95 plate appearances.
Luzardo does not give up many home runs. However, his home run rate is considerably higher versus right-handed hitters. In addition, two of Philadelphia's right-handed bullpen arms are unlikely to be available after pitching in back-to-back days. With the makeup of Chicago's lineup, there is a very good chance Suzuki gets three or four plate appearances against lefties on Tuesday. Throw in a slight outward-blowing Chicago breeze and a favorable price, and I believe you've got the makings of a solid home run bet.
Zach Neto (+375 at TheScoreBet)
Happy Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate. Corbin taking the hill should mean good things will be in store offensively for the Los Angeles Angels. In fairness to Corbin, he faced the Halos four times last season and pitched very well. However, Zach Neto is one Angel hitter who has historically given him problems.
Neto is 5-for-11 lifetime against the veteran left-hander. Included in those five hits are two doubles and a home run. He also had a flyout against Corbin last year that would have been a homer in 20 of 30 Major League ballparks if you are into that sort of thing.
Neto has posted huge power numbers against left-handed pitching in his career. The Angels’ shortstop owns a .527 slugging percentage and .237 ISO versus southpaws. For reference, Mike Trout's career numbers in those categories against lefties are .512 and .229. While Trout and others are good options, Neto's prior strong results against Corbin and the lineup support behind him make him my top pick to hit a home run Tuesday.
Munetaka Murakami (+440 at Fanatics)
In his first four weeks, Munetaka Murakami has embodied the “three true outcomes” approach. In 93 plate appearances, he has walked 20 times, struck out 31, and hit eight home runs. Somewhere, Adam Dunn just shed a tear. Murakami has homered in three straight games, his second such streak already. I see him extending it on Tuesday in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are sending Merrill Kelly to the mound to begin their three-game series with the White Sox. Kelly has never been a huge strikeout guy, sporting a career punchout rate of 21.9 percent. That number is just 19.4 percent against left-handed hitters. Kelly does walk more lefties, but his career walk rate against left-handers is still decent enough at 8.7 percent. I expect Kelly to give Murakami a fair number of pitches to hit in their head-to-head matchups.
Kelly relies on a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Murakami has struggled with whiffs against changeups, but when he connects, he records a 60 percent hard-hit rate. Against Kelly's other three pitches, Murakami's expected slugging percentage is .732 or higher. Currently, he ranks fourth in MLB in barrel rate per batted ball event and seventh in hard-hit rate. Given these indicators, as long as Kelly challenges him, Murakami holds a clear statistical edge in this matchup.
Even if Kelly can somehow maneuver around Murakami, we have additional chances to cash in on Arizona’s subpar bullpen. All of Arizona's relievers are right-handed, benefiting the lefty-hitting Murakami. This season, Diamondbacks relievers rank in the bottom 10 in home run and barrel rate.