MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (5/19)
Last Tuesday was a rough day at the office. It was only the second time I had a losing week in this article. I missed on all three of my home run bets, and none were particularly close. So, I am going back to the drawing board. Luckily, there is no shortage of candidates to hit home runs this week. Hopefully, the homer gods and goddesses will be on our side.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Angel Martinez, Cleveland Guardians (+650, Fanatics)
Angel Martinez is not your classic slugger. You will not confuse his Statcast page with those of James Wood or Yordan Alvarez. But he enters this game with nine home runs so far this year. That is more than Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, or any other Guardian. Martinez is hot lately and has a favorable matchup on Tuesday.
Martinez has homered in four of his last six games overall. That includes long balls in three straight games in which Cleveland has faced a right-handed starting pitcher. Seven of his nine home runs have come off righties. The Detroit Tigers will send right-hander Keider Montero to the mound on Tuesday. Martinez has not hit a home run against Montero, but is 2-for-3 lifetime against him.
Montero has allowed 1.75 home runs per nine innings in his career versus left-handed hitters. That number is slightly lower at home at 1.40. While Comerica Park may not favor hitters, Martinez's swing performs well there. He has seven extra-base hits, including two home runs, in 48 career at-bats in Detroit. BaseballSavant's Expected Home Runs by Park shows Martinez would have 10 home runs this year if all his at-bats were at Comerica Park.
Martinez matches up well against Montero's pitch arsenal, too. From the left side this year, Martinez is hitting .353 with a .725 slugging percentage against Montero's top four offerings. That includes five home runs in just 56 plate appearances.
This bet feels like a longer shot than most because of the odds. However, I think the sportsbooks are being a bit disrespectful here. I will take the discount and bet on Angel Martinez to hit a home run on Tuesday night.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (+425, TheScoreBet)
Cincinnati starter Chase Burns is a phenom with a bright future ahead of him. However, he is not as unhittable as his 1.87 ERA would suggest. Burns has allowed six home runs this year. Five of those can come at the hands of left-handed batters. In his young career, he has allowed a 1.71 home run per nine-inning rate versus lefties. That includes a 1.59 mark on the road. Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park is the only Major League ballpark with a higher home run factor for left-handed batters over the past three years than Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark.
Burns is still developing his repertoire and is mostly a two-pitch pitcher at this stage of his career. He throws his four-seam fastball 60 percent of the time and his slider 29 percent of the time, mixing in a changeup for the remaining 11 percent. Harper is 18-for-49 with five home runs against these pitch types from righties this year.
I have no issue with anyone who wants to take Kyle Schwarber here. Schwarber leads the Majors in home runs this season after hitting 56 last year. However, he missed Monday's game due to illness. It is most likely a minor issue, but Schwarber hadn't missed a game since 2024 before Monday night. Perhaps this is more than just a bug.
In my opinion, there is not enough difference between Schwarber and Harper to justify the current price gap. The best price for a Schwarbomb is also at TheScoreBet, where he is +220. Is he more likely than Harper to go deep? Maybe. Is he twice as likely? I don't think so. Therefore, I am riding with Bryce Harper in this matchup.
Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays (+450, TheScoreBet)
Daulton Varsho is far off the home run pace he set last year when he smacked 20 dingers in just 71 games. But he is starting to heat up at the plate and has an advantageous matchup on Tuesday against Yankees starter Will Warren.
Varsho and Warren faced each other in last year's American League Division Series, and Varsho homered in both plate appearances. While last year's contest was in Toronto, Tuesday's game moves to the Bronx.
Yankee Stadium is one of the best parks for left-handed power, ranking second this year with a 142 home run factor for lefties. The weather should also help the offense, with temperatures in the 80s and winds blowing out at about 10 mph.
Warren has not been able to keep the ball in the park at home this season. He has surrendered six home runs in just 31.1 innings at Yankee Stadium this year. Five of those home runs have been by left-handed batters in only 73 plate appearances.
Varsho only has five home runs this season, but is hitting the ball hard lately. He's had multiple hard-hit balls in five of his last seven games against right-handed starters, and barrels in three of his last four. If he elevates one to the short porch, it will be a successful Dinger Tuesday.