MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (6/2)
It was nice to get back in the win column last week. But we all know that the ultimate goal is not to hit one home run bet. We are always looking for more. I am back with three players I expect to hit home runs on Tuesday. Here are my three favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, June 2nd.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Kyle Schwarber (+235 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
My first home run bet for Tuesday is the chalkiest one I have written up all season. I am betting on Kyle Schwarber to knock one out of the park against the San Diego Padres.
Schwarber leads the Majors with 22 home runs. He has been even more prolific at home against right-handers, with 12 homers in 72 plate appearances in this split. On Tuesday, Schwarber faces righty Randy Vasquez.
Vasquez faced the Phillies last week and allowed three solo home runs. None were to Schwarber, but the slugger has homered once off Vasquez in five career at-bats. Before last week, Vasquez had allowed only five home runs in 10 starts. But that start was more of a regression to the norm than an outlier.
The Padres right-hander has allowed a 13.2% barrel rate this season. That puts him in the fifth percentile among pitchers. Combine that with a 13th percentile hard-hit rate and 28th percentile groundball rate, and you have a recipe for home runs.
Schwarber's high strikeout and walk rates (47.4% combined) may be offset by Vasquez's pitch-to-contact approach. In five May starts, Vasquez faced 112 hitters, recording just 13 strikeouts and six walks.
Given this data, I’m comfortable paying a premium for a Schwarbomb Tuesday, so I’m betting that Schwarber increases his Major League home run lead.
Mike Trout (+290 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
This next bet shares some similarities with the pick above. While Mike Trout might "only" have 14 home runs so far in 2026, I believe he has an excellent chance to improve upon that number on Tuesday.
Trout will face Tomoyuki Sugano of the Colorado Rockies in this game. Sugano is similar to Randy Vasquez in some respects. He pitches to extreme contact and has outperformed many of his underlying metrics so far this season.
Among 115 pitchers with at least 50 innings, Sugano has the lowest strikeout and strikeout-plus-walk rates. That's a poor formula for a pitcher allowing a 16% barrel rate. Sugano's 12.8% barrel per plate appearance mark is the highest among 150 pitchers with at least 100 batted ball events against them.
And if you think pitching in Colorado is to blame for Sugano's issues, consider that eight of the 11 home runs he has surrendered this year have come on the road. Angel Stadium has the fifth-highest home run factor for right-handed hitters (yes, higher than Coors Field) using Baseball Savant's three-year rolling averages.
Trout is tied for third in the Majors with 31 barrels. He trails only James Wood, Schwarber and Aaron Judge in barrels per batted ball event. Trout and Sugano have only squared off in one Major League game before Tuesday. In that game, Trout hit a long home run off the foul pole. If Sugano goes after Trout, I expect big things from the Angels outfielder.
Nolan Arenado (+520 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
My final home run bet for Tuesday's slate is for Nolan Arenado to hit a home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Full disclosure: I played this straight at +590, but by the time I had dialed up my Dinger Tuesday parlay, Arenado's price had dropped to +520. I don't claim to have the type of stroke to move a line, but I do think others see this as a favorable matchup for Arizona's third baseman.
Arenado has four home runs and a double in 14 plate appearances against Eric Lauer over their last five meetings. These meetings did not occur when Arenado was hitting in Coors Field and regularly hitting 40 homers per year. All matchups have taken place since June 2022. The most recent was in April, when Lauer pitched for Toronto. Arenado seems to have Lauer's number.
Lauer was solid in his Dodgers debut last week. But he isn't the first pitcher to rebound against the Colorado Rockies away from Coors Field. Lauer still allowed a home run in that game, and giving up longballs has been a major issue for the left-hander.
Lauer has allowed 12 home runs in just 42.1 innings so far in 2026. That includes 10 homers allowed to right-handed hitters in just 152 plate appearances. Lauer has faced more than 12 hitters on eight occasions so far this year and has given up at least one home run each time.
Given Arenado's dominance over Lauer and the pitcher's home run issues, this feels like a great value play. It was even more so at +590, but as long as Arenado hits one out, we'll live with a slightly reduced payout.