MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (6/23)
The home run bets have not hit lately, but one big week can change everything. The process stays the same, and the results will follow. Here are my top three MLB home run props for Tuesday’s MLB slate.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Bryce Harper (+375 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Multiple times this season, I have gone back and forth on whether to bet on Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper to hit a home run on a Dinger Tuesday. Of course, you could always play both in a matchup like this one against the Washington Nationals and starter Zack Littell.
Littell has allowed 20 home runs in 71 innings this season. His numbers are even worse against left-handed hitters, who have 16 homers in just 37.2 innings. I prefer Harper because of the price difference and his numbers against Littell's pitch mix.
Littell primarily throws a four-seam fastball, a slider and a splitter to left-handed hitters. Those offerings constitute over 85% of his pitches to lefties. Harper is slugging .781 with eight home runs in 73 at-bats when facing those pitches from right-handed hurlers. He also has an expected slugging rate of .657 on four-seamers and .777 against sliders.
I took Harper at +375 on Fanatics Sportsbook to hit a home run. Most sportsbooks offer him at +350 or higher, while Schwarber is best found at +185 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Schwarber could also homer, but I do not believe the 14% implied odds difference is warranted. Harper remains my top pick.
One thing to keep an eye on is whether Washington uses PJ Poulin or Richard Lovelady as an opener due to Littell's struggles. If so, we could see even better odds across sportsbooks. An opener would not keep me from backing Harper.
Andrew Vaughn (+513 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Andrew Vaughn has been more of a line drive hitter than a home run hitter so far in 2026. However, Tuesday's game could see Vaughn break through on the big fly side of things.
Nick Lodolo is starting this game. He has issues with right-handed power, and that has not changed this season. Right-handed hitters have taken Lodolo deep seven times in just 32 innings thus far. Lodolo's flyball rates are much higher this season when facing righties (41.8% compared to 21.1% against lefties) and when pitching at home (40.7% versus 28 %).
For his career, Lodolo has allowed 1.79 home runs per nine innings when facing righties at home. Great American Ball Park has always been one of the best hitting environments. This season, Cincinnati's home park sports a 126 ballpark factor for right-handed home runs. That is tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Vaughn has been crushing lefties all season and has incredible numbers against the pitches that Lodolo will throw. Vaughn is slugging .810 in 51 plate appearances overall this season versus left-handed pitchers. When facing the four pitches that Lodolo features, Vaughn has a .897 slugging rate and .379 ISO in 35 plate appearances.
This is an excellent matchup all around for Vaughn, and I am betting on him to leave the yard on Tuesday evening. Most sportsbooks have this bet priced between +450 and +475. I would still play it at those prices.
Willson Contreras (+299 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
For my last home run bet on Tuesday, I am taking Willson Contreras of the Boston Red Sox. He has shown more power against left-handers, with a .607 slugging rate and .311 ISO this season. Contreras faces southpaw Sean Sullivan of the Colorado Rockies.
Sullivan has given up two home runs in seven innings across two MLB starts. Both of those starts came on the road. He did not fare much better in limiting longballs in the minors - 10 homers in 54.2 innings before Colorado called him up earlier this month. Sullivan struggled to contain right-handed hitters, allowing eight homers in 39.1 innings in the minors.
Of course, we cannot ignore the Coors Field factor. While Coors Field has not been as generous in the home run department as we are accustomed to seeing, it is still a favorable hitting environment.
Contreras has four doubles and a home run in his last four games in Colorado, dating back to last season. That includes Monday's game, in which Contreras registered hard-hit balls in his final three plate appearances. He sees the ball well in Colorado, and I think that will lead to a big day at the plate. I am betting on Contreras to knock one out of the park on Tuesday.