MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (6/30)
The weather is heating up, which is a great sign heading into Dinger Tuesday. We also have several pitchers who are prone to serving up long balls. Let's finish out the month in style by cashing in on some home run bets. Here are my three favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, June 30th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Seiya Suzuki (+280 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
My first home run bet for Tuesday's action is Seiya Suzuki of the Chicago Cubs. Suzuki has been in good form and has an excellent matchup against San Diego Padres starter JP Sears.
Suzuki had an excellent series in Milwaukee this past weekend. He drove in multiple runs in all three games, homering in two of them. Suzuki followed that up on Monday with another two-RBI effort.
In that game, he doubled and singled. Suzuki's single was a walk-off hit against Mason Miller that hit the top of the wall in left field. He is seeing the ball very well right now and has a great chance to continue that momentum against Sears.
Sears has allowed 1.61 home runs per nine innings in his Major League career. Consider that most of his career has been spent with the Oakland Athletics (not Sacramento or Las Vegas). I mention that because the Oakland Coliseum had one of the lowest home run factors in baseball.
It should come as no surprise that Sears struggles in hitters' parks. Before being traded to San Diego last year, Sears gave up 14 home runs in just 47.2 innings in Sacramento.
Tuesday's game will be played at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out. Given Sears' career 19.7% strikeout rate and 48.9% fly-ball rate, this is a recipe for home runs. His arsenal does not figure to give Suzuki problems either.
Sears featured a four-seam fastball or change-up on over 70% of his pitches against right-handed hitters in his lone MLB start this year. Suzuki has two homers and two doubles in just 20 at-bats on four-seamers from lefties this season. And while he is only 1-for-6 versus change-ups from southpaws this year, he had five home runs in just 27 at-bats on change-ups from lefties last season.
This is a great matchup for Suzuki to stay hot.
Kyle Stowers (+310 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Next, I am taking Kyle Stowers of the Miami Marlins to hit a home run when he faces Tanner Gordon and the Colorado Rockies.
Stowers has not gotten to the level he achieved last season in the power department. He enters this game with eight homers after hitting 25 a year ago. However, Stowers is showing signs of emerging from his funk. He has six barrels in his last 11 games after producing just 10 over his first 50 outings. Gordon is no stranger to giving up barrels or home runs.
Gordon has allowed 32 home runs in just 145 career MLB innings. He has also allowed an 11% barrel rate. Both rates are even higher in 2026. Gordon has a 13.2% barrel rate allowed this season. That puts him in the second percentile overall among MLB pitchers. Gordon has given up six homers this year - All to left-handed hitters, with five of the six coming at home.
Coors Field has not been the best-hitting park in baseball as it has been in other seasons. However, it still has an 113 park factor for left-handed power.
Stowers has been a dead pull hitter since last season, particularly on fly balls. Gordon has the 10th-highest fly-ball rate among 310 Major League pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched this season. Tuesday's forecast calls for temperatures in the 80s with winds blowing out towards right field. This is the perfect formula for Stowers to hit at least one home run in this game.
Max Muncy (+370 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
For my final home run bet, I am taking Max Muncy of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not to be confused with Max Muncy of the Athletics.
JP Sears is not the only pitcher who has struggled to limit home runs in Sacramento. Let me introduce you to Jeffrey Springs.
Springs joined the Athletics prior to last season, when the team began playing at its temporary home in California's capital. To say he has had problems pitching at home would be an understatement.
Springs has thrown 127.2 innings at Sutter Health Park and has allowed 29 home runs. It does not seem like a question of if Springs will serve up a home run on Tuesday, but to whom. While there may be more sexy Dodgers you can pick, I don't know if there is a better value pick than Max Muncy.
Muncy has 17 home runs this year, one off the team lead held by Shohei Ohtani. Five of Muncy's home runs have come against lefties in just 69 plate appearances. Ohtani is always a favorite bet to go deep. However, he and Muncy are night and day when it comes to how they have performed against Springs' top two pitches this season.
Springs attacks left-handed hitters with a slider and a four-seam fastball. He throws one of those two pitches over 90% of the time versus lefties. Ohtani is 4-for-39 with a home run and a double when facing those two pitches from left-handers this year. Muncy is 9-for-28 with three homers and a double against those two offerings from lefties.
This, of course, is not to say that Ohtani can't hit a home run on Tuesday. I just find Muncy to be the better value, especially at this price. I have not seen this available anywhere except FanDuel Sportsbook, but I would be comfortable playing it at +350 or higher.