MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (7/21)
The second half of the MLB season is in full swing, and I am geared up for a profitable Dinger Tuesday. There are plenty of favorable conditions for us to take advantage of, so let’s get to it. Below are my three favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, July 21st.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Austin Riley (+710 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I am starting off my home run picks with a longshot in Austin Riley. I don't think the odds of Riley knocking one out of the park should be this high. The sportsbooks may be sleeping on Riley because of his season-long struggles. He is hitting just .216 with 12 home runs on the season. But the third baseman has been locked in at the plate since the All-Star break.
Riley is 6-for-14 with three home runs in four games in the second half so far. Of his 12 batted ball events, he has produced five barrels and eight hard-hit balls. Riley will face a familiar foe on Tuesday when the Braves host Walker Buehler and the San Diego Padres.
Including the playoffs, Riley is 7-for-13 with a home run and a double against Buehler since 2021. That also includes seven hard-hit balls. Buehler has really struggled in the home run department lately, having allowed six in three July starts. He has also had issues with the longball both on the road and when facing right-handed hitters.
Buehler has served up six home runs in just 36 innings away from Petco Park this season. Five of those six homers have been hit by right-handers in a total of just 75 plate appearances. Righties are slugging .597 versus Buehler in his eight road starts.
Riley has also exhibited reverse power splits this year. He has six home runs in 128 plate appearances when facing right-handed pitchers at Truist Park. In all other combined splits, he has six homers in 273 plate appearances.
Taken together, these trends make Riley one of the best home run values on Tuesday's board. I grabbed him at +710 and consider anything above +600 a huge bargain.
Luis Garcia Jr. (+290 at Fanatics Sportsbook) & CJ Abrams (+310 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I am not going to tell you not to bet on James Wood to hit a home run on Tuesday against one of the worst pitchers in baseball in Michael Lorenzen. Instead, I'll tell you why I prefer Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams over Wood in this matchup.
Lorenzen's best trait, for all his deficiencies, is that he keeps hitters off balance with a variety of pitches. He has an overall usage rate of 7% or higher on seven different pitches. When facing a left-handed hitter, Lorenzen uses five unique offerings at least 13% of the time.
Wood is a beast, no doubt. But of the 20 home runs he has hit against right-handed pitchers this season, 10 have come on four-seam fastballs. Garcia and Abrams have much more balanced power profiles against right-handers.
If you remove the four-seamer from the equation and focus on the other four pitches Lorenzen is most likely to throw versus left-handers, here are the numbers for the trio of Washington hitters against righties this season:
- Luis Garcia Jr.: 12 home runs, .618 slugging rate (142 plate appearances)
- CJ Abrams: 12 home runs, .624 slugging rate (127 plate appearances)
- James Wood: 4 home runs, .396 slugging rate (129 plate appearances)
Garcia and Abrams have hit multiple home runs against righties on all five pitches they are most likely to see from Lorenzen on Tuesday. Neither struggles against four-seam fastballs from right-handers. Garcia has five home runs and a .615 slugging rate against four-seamers from righties. Abrams has four homers and a .623 slugging rate.
Given these numbers, I prefer to bet on Garcia and Abrams over Wood to go deep on Tuesday.
One quick side note on this game: Miles Mikolas is the projected starter for Washington, and his career numbers in Coors Field are what I imagine mine would be if I pitched there.
That said, I anticipate the Nationals opening with Carson Palmquist, which is why I did not include any Colorado Rockies in my home run bets. Palmquist is not exactly an elite arm himself, but I would prefer to wait until the official lineup is announced. If Palmquist does start, I expect some of the prices of Colorado's hitters to improve. That would be a good time to pounce.