MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (8/11)
It is time for another full slate of Tuesday night action. I am looking to cash out a Dinger Tuesday parlay with two of this year's hottest sluggers and one player who I believe is being slept on. Here are my three favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday.
As luck would have it, all three of these players are best priced at FanDuel Sportsbook as of this writing. That is quite convenient for those participating in their Dinger Parlay promotion. That said, these prices can change quickly, so please do your due diligence and shop around for the best price.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+340)
My first home run bet for Tuesday's MLB slate is on Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs. He is in the running for the National League MVP and is among the league leaders with 26 home runs. He also has a solid matchup in Washington against the Nationals and Jake Irvin.
While Irvin has improved in some areas this season compared to last, he is still allowing a lot of hard contact. He falls in the second percentile at barrel rate allowed and the 14th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. Irvin is also in the 25th percentile in terms of his groundball rate. Crow-Armstrong not only hits the ball hard, but he is also an extreme fly-ball hitter.
Among 142 qualified hitters, Crow-Armstrong has the eighth-lowest groundball rate and 11th-highest fly-ball rate. That will play well in Nationals Park, which has played as one of the best hitting ballparks in the Majors this season.
Washington's home park has a 135 home run factor for left-handed batters this year. That is the second-highest mark in the Majors. That number increases to 149 at night.
Crow-Armstrong has faced Irvin in two games at Nationals Park in his career. He homered in one and doubled off the wall in the other.
Junior Caminero (+240) & Liam Hicks (+680)
I am double-dipping on the Tampa Bay Rays for my final two home run bets for Tuesday. As you can see by the odds, one is chalky, while the other is more of a longshot. However, I like both Junior Caminero and Liam Hicks to go deep on Tuesday night.
Let's start with Caminero, who is sure to be among Tuesday's most popular home run bets. Caminero is one shy of the Major League lead with 34 home runs this season.
Caminero launched his 34th home run on Monday in Tampa's come-from-behind victory against the Athletics in Sacramento. Caminero is always a solid bet to go deep, but he has the added benefit of extremely favorable hitting conditions in Sutter Health Park on Tuesday.
The Athletics' temporary home has the highest home run park factor for right-handed hitters this season, with a 134 mark. Caminero's 410-foot blast on Monday night was the shortest among the three home runs hit in that game. This park is a launching pad, and few sluggers can match Caminero when it comes to hitting them out of the yard.
I haven't even discussed Mason Barnett yet. He is the Athletics' starting pitcher on Tuesday. Barnett has given up eight home runs in just 34 innings so far this season. That includes five long balls in 17.2 innings at home.
Barnett has posted a 17th percentile barrel rate allowed and a 16th percentile groundball rate allowed. This is a recipe for disaster against Caminero and company. I am taking the Rays third baseman to hit at least one home run on Tuesday.
Liam Hicks is the biggest longshot among my three home run plays for Tuesday night's action. That makes sense considering he only has 15 home runs this year, while my other two picks have combined for 60. But I think the sportsbooks are sleeping on Hicks here.
FanDuel Sportsbook has priced Hicks at +680 to hit a home run on Tuesday. That is a crazy price, especially in comparison to other players in this game. For example, Jeff McNeil is +600. McNeil has four home runs in over 350 plate appearances this year. He has also benefited from playing half his games at Sutter Health Park.
Hicks spent most of the year playing for the Miami Marlins. Their home park has an 83 home run factor for left-handed batters. Based on Baseball Savant's expected home runs chart, Hicks would have 17 homers if all his plate appearances had taken place in Sacramento.
Hicks does almost all his damage against right-handed pitchers. He has 14 home runs in 336 plate appearances versus right-handers this year. That is a solid 25-30 home run pace without even factoring in his old ballpark or the one he gets to hit in on Tuesday. That alone should warrant a price closer to +500 or perhaps even longer. Now let's look at the matchup itself.
Barnett features a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball and change-up when facing left-handed hitters. Hicks is hitting .311 and slugging .546 with 12 home runs in 196 at-bats when he faces those pitches from righties.
Of his four offerings, Barnett has had the most success with his slider and change-up. Hicks is hitting .321 and slugging .590 with five home runs in 83 at-bats against those two pitches from right-handed hurlers. No matter how you slice it, this is a great matchup for Tampa Bay's newly minted starting catcher.
I can't guarantee Hicks hits a home run on Tuesday. All I am saying is that this price is screaming value to me. And if I can get my money in good, I will live with the results.