MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (8/18)
It is time for another round of MLB home run props for this Dinger Tuesday. Last week I hit on two out of three but couldn't finish the sweep. Let's hope for an even better result this time around. Here are my three favorite home run bets for Tuesday, August 18th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise stated)
Joshua Baez (+441)
For my first home run bet of the night, I am picking Joshua Baez of the St. Louis Cardinals. There is admittedly some volatility here, but this price is excellent all things considered.
We all saw Baez slug home runs in his first three Major League plate appearances on Saturday. We have also seen him go 0-for-15 since. Obviously, his baseline is somewhere in between those two extremes.
Despite his recent results, Baez is still hitting the ball extremely hard, especially against left-handers. Baez has put the ball in play six times in eight at-bats against lefties through four Major League games. He has recorded a hard-hit ball all six times. On Tuesday, the rookie phenom gets lefty Andrew Abbott of the Cincinnati Reds.
Abbott has had a solid season for Cincinnati. He ranks right around league average in barrel rate and hard-hit rate allowed. However, Abbott falls short of the average starting pitcher in a few metrics.
Among 59 qualified starting pitchers, Abbott's home run rate allowed is the 20th-highest. He also has the second-highest xFIP, fourth-highest FIP and fifth-highest xERA among that group. A big reason for that is that Abbott falls behind hitters and lacks the swing-and-miss stuff to make up for it.
Abbott ranks among the bottom 15 out of those 59 qualified starters in first-pitch strike, contact rate and swinging strike rate. As a result, he has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate.
Baez's biggest bugaboo this year has been the punchout. He struck out in nearly 30% of his minor league plate appearances this season. When Baez put the ball in play in Triple-A, he hit .383 with 34 homers in 274 at-bats. I believe Baez will get the best of Abbott in this matchup.
I expect this price to come down throughout the day, but I would still be comfortable playing it down to +350.
Munetaka Murakami (+309)
Next, I am taking Munetaka Murakami to hit at least one home run in Tuesday's matchup against the crosstown rival Chicago Cubs.
Murakami enters this contest in solid form. He has at least one extra-base hit in seven of his last nine starts. For the Statcast crowd, Murakami has at least one barrel in seven of those nine starts as well. Murakami faces Kevin Gausman on Tuesday night. Gausman does not give up an egregious number of home runs. But it's not as if he is immune to allowing the long ball either.
Gausman's home run per nine innings rate is 23rd-highest among qualified starting pitchers this season. While Tuesday's outing will be the veteran's first as a member of the Cubs in Wrigley Field, the friendly confines have given Gausman trouble over the years.
In four career starts at Wrigley Field, Gausman has given up 16 earned runs and four homers in just 15 innings. That factors in a game earlier this year in which Gausman allowed seven runs in the first inning, including a grand slam. Granted, that was against the Cubs. But there was a slight breeze out towards right field that day, just as there will be on Tuesday night. Murakami doesn't need much help launching one into the seats, but we'll take an assist where we can get it.
The Cubs will also likely be without two of their three left-handed bullpen arms on Tuesday. Murakami fares much better against right-handers this year from a power perspective. He has a 170 wRC+ and .603 slugging rate against righties, compared to a 109 wRC+ and .416 slugging rate versus southpaws. As a unit, Cubs relievers have allowed the fourth-highest home run rate.
This is a favorable matchup overall for Murakami, and I am betting on the slugger to go deep on Tuesday night.
Shohei Ohtani (+215 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Just because a bet is chalky doesn't make it a bad bet. Besides, after watching my first two bets hit last week and having to rely on a longshot to hit my Dinger Tuesday parlay, I want to avoid a similar fate this week. So, I am taking Shohei Ohtani as my final home run pick for Tuesday night.
Ohtani hit two more home runs on Monday night, which is par for the course whenever he plays at Coors Field. Ohtani has a 21-game hitting streak in Colorado. The two-way star has 38 hits in those games, including nine doubles, a triple and nine home runs.
Ohtani and the Dodgers will face Ryan Feltner on Tuesday. To his credit, Feltner has solid results against Los Angeles in general, and Ohtani in particular, holding him to just one hit in 10 at-bats in their previous matchups. Having said that, I am willing to take my chances that Ohtani solves the Feltner puzzle.
Among 140 Major League hurlers with at least 80 innings pitched this year, Feltner's 1.88 home runs per nine innings allowed are 11th-highest. And among 162 pitchers who have allowed at least 200 batted-ball events, Feltner's expected slugging rate against is the 12th-highest mark in the Majors. This is not a matchup to fear by any means, and I expect Ohtani to continue to roll.