MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (8/25)
I have hit two out of three MLB home run props in each of the last two Dinger Tuesdays. Hopefully, we can complete the trifecta this time around. These power hitters are in good positions to produce on Tuesday, so let's get to today's picks. Here are my three favorite MLB home run picks for Tuesday, August 25th.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook unless otherwise stated)
Yordan Alvarez (+247 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My first home run bet of the night is Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros. Houston’s slugger is in contention for the American League Triple Crown, and I like his chances of adding to his numbers in all three categories against Will Warren and the New York Yankees.
Alvarez has yet to homer against Warren, but it is safe to say he sees the right-hander well. Alvarez is 4-for-5 versus Warren in their previous matchups. All five balls have been hit with an exit velocity higher than 110 miles per hour (MPH), including two barrels. That shouldn't surprise anyone, considering Alvarez's numbers against Warren's arsenal.
Alvarez has a triple-slash line of .338/.438/.675, including 22 home runs in just 281 plate appearances versus Warren's five-pitch mix. If Alvarez gets the ball in the air against Warren, it is likely to leave the short porch at Yankee Stadium. Keeping the ball in the park has been an issue for Warren, especially at home and against left-handed batters.
Warren has served up seven home runs in just 30.2 innings when facing lefties at home this season. That is a pace of 2.05 homers per nine innings allowed. For reference, Aaron Nola has the highest HR/9 among 54 qualified pitchers (2.04 HR/9).
Alvarez doesn't need any help reaching the seats, but it is worth noting that Yankee Stadium has the highest park factor for left-handed power this season. Tuesday's forecast should be favorable as well, with a slight breeze out towards right-center field.
Max Muncy (+370)
I am backing Max Muncy of the Los Angeles Dodgers with my next home run bet. He has been in excellent form recently and has a solid matchup against Bryce Elder and the Atlanta Braves.
Elder has the eighth-highest HR/9 allowed among qualified pitchers this season. He has allowed at least one home run in 11 of his 12 starts. To his credit, Elder has been better at home and against left-handed hitters. But Muncy has homered against Elder, and he profiles incredibly well against Elder's pitch mix.
Elder incorporates a five-pitch mix when facing left-handed batters. That includes a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, sinker and change-up. Muncy has hit multiple home runs on all five pitches against right-handed pitchers this season.
Overall, Muncy has 20 homers and a .603 slugging rate in 276 plate appearances against those five offerings. And if we narrow those numbers down to the three most popular pitches in Elder's repertoire, Muncy's numbers are even more prolific.
Elder features his four-seamer, slider and cutter on just over 70% of deliveries versus lefties. Muncy has a .708 slugging rate against those three pitches from right-handers this season. That includes 15 long balls in just 169 plate appearances.
Truist Park in Atlanta isn't thought of as a home run haven. But it ranks ninth in left-handed power with a 112 park factor. Per Baseball Savant's expected home runs by park tool, Muncy would have 30 homers as opposed to 26 had all of his plate appearances taken place at Truist Park.
If none of these factors have helped convince you that Muncy is a solid home run bet, consider that Tuesday is Muncy's birthday. Muncy has two home runs and two doubles in six previous games on his birthday. For the record, that did not factor into my analysis, but it's a fun fact. So is the fact that Tuesday is also the other Max Muncy's birthday.
Bryce Harper (+525)
If you think that Yordan Alvarez and Max Muncy have good numbers against their respective opponents' pitch mix, allow me to introduce you to Bryce Aron Max Harper.
Harper is facing George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. Kirby has thrown as many as seven different pitches to left-handed batters this season.
However, his three most popular offerings are the four-seam fastball, sweeper and knuckle curve. Kirby throws those three pitches roughly 75% of the time when facing lefties. Harper is 37-for-93 with 15 home runs against right-handed pitchers when he sees those three pitches.
Harper does have 21 walks in this split, but Kirby is always among the league leaders in limiting walks. I am trusting him to go after Harper in this matchup. And if he does, I give Harper the decided advantage.
Kirby is not having the best season and has really struggled over the past month. In his last five starts, Kirby has allowed 19 earned runs in 24 innings. He has given up six home runs over that stretch while only striking out 13 hitters. Overall this season, Kirby has surrendered six homers in just 38.1 innings at home versus left-handed hitters.
Like Truist Park, T-Mobile Park has gone under the radar in terms of playing in favor of left-handed power. Seattle's home park has a 119 park factor for left-handed home runs. That is the fourth-highest mark in the Majors.
Given all these factors, I love that we are getting Harper at such a favorable price. I would be comfortable playing this at anything above +400.