MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Tuesday (9/15)
Last Tuesday was a nothingburger for my home run picks. But we still have two more weeks to go, so let's make the penultimate Dinger Tuesday profitable. Here are my favorite home run picks for September 15.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(All bets one unit, unless otherwise specified.)
Max Muncy (+370 at Fanatics)
For my first home run pick for Tuesday's MLB action, I am going with Max Muncy of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Muncy's primary adversary will be Cincinnati starting pitcher Rhett Lowder, who has hit the proverbial wall lately. The Reds' right-hander has given up 14 runs in just 7.1 innings spanning his last two starts. That includes seven earned runs allowed against the Dodgers last week in a 14-1 shellacking. Lowder has given up at least one home run in seven of his last eight outings.
Muncy has excellent numbers against the four pitches that Lowder is most likely to throw. This season, against a right-handed pitcher’s four-seam fastball, changeup, sinker, or slider, Muncy has 17 home runs and 24 near home runs in fewer than 300 plate appearances.
While Dodger Stadium has been relatively favorable for left-handed power this season, playing in Great American Ballpark will not hurt Muncy's chances of going deep in this game. Cincinnati's home park has the eighth-highest home run factor for left-handed hitters this year. Per Baseball Savant's Expected Home Runs by Park metric, Muncy would hit 32 home runs if he played only in Cincinnati. That is a sizable improvement over his actual home run total of 28.
Given all these factors, Max Muncy will get our Tuesday night off to a solid start. I am betting he hits at least one home run in this ballgame.
Coby Mayo (+420 at DraftKings)
The New York Mets are sending southpaw Sean Manaea to the mound to start Tuesday's tilt with the Baltimore Orioles. That means Coby Mayo is worth a look as a home run bet.
Mayo leads the Major Leagues with 16 home runs against left-handed pitchers this year. That number is even more impressive when you realize over 100 players have more plate appearances versus lefties than Mayo. Mayo is slugging .737 with a 210 wRC+ against left-handers. The next highest player in those categories among 236 players with at least 100 plate appearances against lefties is Elly De La Cruz, with a .651 slugging percentage and 185 wRC+.
Manaea is no stranger to the long ball. He has allowed 21 overall this year, including 16 to right-handed hitters. Righties are slugging .508 overall versus Manaea this season. Mayo strikes out a lot, but that should matter less against Manaea. The veteran pitcher has only fanned 19 percent of right-handed batters in 2026.
Citi Field is not the most homer-friendly ballpark for righty power, but Mayo has 24 expected home runs at Citi Field, one more than his actual total. I really like him in this matchup, especially at this price point. I would play this down to around +350.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+340 at FanDuel)
For my final home run bet for Tuesday, I am taking Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres. Tatis showed out with two homers when I picked him two weeks ago. He has a similarly favorable matchup this time around against Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies.
Tatis has been a monster in the second half of the Major League season. Since the All-Star Break, Tatis has hit 17 home runs. That leads all right-handed hitters. Righties have given Freeland fits this season, especially in Coors Field. Freeland has allowed 11 home runs in just 43 innings against right-handers at home.
Freeland is making his first MLB start in nearly a month due to a neck injury. He threw only 47 pitches in his last Minor League rehab start, so Tatis may face him twice instead of three times. Still, even if Freeland escapes unscathed, Colorado's bullpen hasn’t been holding down the fort.
So far in September, Rockies relievers have a combined 7.66 ERA and have served up 1.53 home runs per nine innings. Closer Jordan Romano is likely to be unavailable, as is primary setup man Juan Mejia. This could be a ragtag crew including Zach Agnos, Jimmy Herget, and Nick Frasso. Each of those pitchers has an ERA above 6.00 at home.
Most sportsbooks have this priced between +250 and +280. I would play this home run prop at those prices, but I was more than happy to get it at +340 without a boost.