MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/29)
Baseball is finally back, and with it comes one of the more fun and unique bets in all of sports: the No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.
If you're unfamiliar, NRFI is exactly what it sounds like, as you are betting on the game to remain scoreless after both teams have batted in the first inning. These wagers are great, as they provide all the sweat and suspense of a normal wager packed into a 10-15 minute time frame. The caveat with these bets is that they're often juiced more than the regular -110 to the "No" side (usually ranging between -110 and -150), and prices fluctuate substantially between sportsbooks. I'll do my best to provide the best price I can find, but as always, shop around before placing your bet.
As these wagers are priced with heavier juice and can be lost on the swing of a bat, they are almost always just 1/2 unit plays for me, but I'll specify if I'm going more or less on a play. The first few weeks will take some acclimation to this market as the MLB has introduced a few new rule changes that I foresee benefitting the offense. The pitch clock is going down from 20 seconds to 18 seconds, and fielders are now not allowed to block any part of the base when applying a tag to a runner. It's also always a guessing game as to which balls the MLB is rolling out on a yearly basis.
That said, I have one NRFI play to kick off this bi-weekly article series for this truncated Friday slate following Thursday's MLB Opening Day festivities,
Thursday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Jose Quintana
The Mets and Brewers will kick off their 2024 seasons on Friday, as poor weather made them postpone Thursday's game. It will be better in New York regarding precipitation, but it still figures to be in the low 50s and pretty windy, factoring into this handicap.
Jose Quintana will get the ball to start for the Mets in this one. He’s coming off of a 2023 campaign that was down compared to his 2022 season but still better than most of the seasons in his career. He did a great job of avoiding hard contact last year, ranking above the 85th percentile in both barrel % and hard hit %. He walked only 7.5% of the batters he faced and ranked in the top 1/3 of all pitchers in both average exit velocity and chase rate. He'll be up against a Brewers’ offense that really lacked pop last year, ranking 23rd or worse in AVG, SLG, OPS, HR and 2B. They also ranked among the top half of baseball in Ks, and ranked in the bottom 1/2 in OBP. The Brewers’ lineup profiles pretty similar to their 2023 team, so I don't necessarily see a lot of improvement coming from Milwaukee in that department this season.
On the flip side, Freddy Peralta will toe the slab for the Brewers in their opener, getting the upgrade to the top slot in the rotation due to the Corbin Burnes trade and Brandon Woodruff injuries. To many teams, turning their third starter into their top arm would be a major problem, but most also don't have a Freddy Peralta on their pitching staff. Peralta's 3.86 ERS might not blow you away, but his Baseball Savant page is pretty eye-popping. He ranked in the 78th percentile or better in xERA (3.35), xBA (0.214), average exit velocity, whiff% and K%. What's even crazier is that those numbers were slightly inflated compared to previous seasons, so his ceiling is even higher than that.
He'll be pitching against a Mets offense that was pretty underwhelming in their own right, ranking in the league’s bottom half in AVG, SLG, OPS and OBP. They were also dead last in 2B. Their lineup also projects pretty similarly to last year, except that their veterans are a year older, and they have some pretty inexperienced bats that they would like to work into the mix this season.
This early spring game has all the makings for an NRFI: cool and windy weather, two offenses that were well below average in 2023 and two experienced top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers. Citi Field also profiles as one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks in the league, ranking third-worst in overall offensive park factors since 2021.
Bet: NRFI (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: