MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (9/18)
Welcome back to another day of sports betting as the MLB season continues with the playoffs right around the corner. NRFI stands for No-Run First Inning. It's a popular betting market where gamblers wager on whether the first inning of an MLB game will end with zero runs scored by either team. Pretty simple. NRFI bets are the best because they're quick – sometimes you'll know the outcome within minutes. NRFI bets can provide an edge over other markets if you’ve researched. I'm here to help provide that edge. As always, shop around for the best odds and be on the lookout for lineup announcements, which can significantly impact the outcome.
We've hit a bit of a roadblock recently, but it's still a winning season and I plan on keeping it that way through the playoffs. Let's dive into some games on this September 18 slate.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Thursday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Last Time: 1-1 | Season: 24-21 | (Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Shane Baz
I know that Tampa is basically eliminated from the playoffs but this is still a big game for Toronto as they try to lock up the best record in the American League and the AL East title.
Shane Baz goes for Toronto who hasn't exactly been great this season. The Tampa righty has actually been worse at home, sporting a 6.28 ERA with an .854 OPS against. Since the All-Star break, Baz owns a 7.42 ERA with a 1-7 record. Not great. Additionally, Vlad Jr. has slugged off Baz in his 13 career at-bats against the Rays starter with Springer and Lukes experienced against him as well.
The Blue Jays counter with Chris Bassitt on the mound and it's not like he's been lights out. His first inning ERA sits at a 4.20 in his 30 starts this year and Brandon Lowe has his number. The expected three-hitter for Tampa is 10-for-17 with six extra-base hits off the Blue Jays starter so Lowe alone could be the reason there's early run production here.
Considering both teams have more YRFI than NRFI this year, I'm comfortable taking the risk here. I'm sure you can find plus value odds somewhere, so be sure to shop around.
Pick: YRFI (+100)
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Stephen Kolek
This is another instance of chasing plus odds but in the opposite direction. Kansas City is on a 10-game YRFI streak so now would be the perfect time to go against that, right? It seems silly but I think today is the day the streak ends.
On the season, the Royals rank seventh in NRFI percentage so they are due for some major regression in the non-scoring department. That streak is also due in large part to teams scoring against them. Kansas City sends Stephen Kolek to the mound who has been lights out with a 2.59 ERA in his last five starts and a 1.83 ERA in his three starts with the Royals. Cal Raleigh is scary without a doubt but not much of the top of the Mariners lineup has seen much of Kolek.
Luis Castillo hasn't allowed a first inning run in three straight starts and I expect him to continue that streak tonight with Seattle in a dead heat race for the AL West with Houston. Maybe I'm dumb for fading the YRFI streak, but at plus money, this is an easy bet.
Pick: NRFI (+110)