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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/20)

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On Tuesday’s full slate of games, I’m relying on some veteran arms to help me get s couple of NRFI plays to the window. Nathan Eovaldi will take on Dylan Cease, and Justin Verlander will go against Framber Valdez.

All four teams highlighted in this article are among the 12 teams in the MLB that have an NRFI success rate above 50%, and all four pitchers have garnered Cy Young votes in at least one season. I trust the pedigree and matchups of each of these pitchers to get through the first inning without giving up any runs.

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (23-20, -1.18 Units)

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox

Pitching matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Dylan Cease

Nathan Eovaldi has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 9-3 record with a career-best 2.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Nearly every single one of his advanced metrics puts him well above league average, including whiff%, chase rate, K%, xBA and average exit velocity. His xSLG, xWOBA and barrel% are even higher, coming in above the 70th percentile. He’s also only walking slightly above 5% of the batters he faces. He’ll be pitching against a White Sox lineup that ranks bottom 10 in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and is much worse against RHP matchups. I love Eovaldi’s matchup tonight and expect him to have a clean first frame.

Dylan Cease will get the ball for the White Sox in this one, and although he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was last season, there is some reason to have optimism backing Cease tonight. For one thing, his stuff is still there. His fastball is one of the best in the game, registering in the top 80th percentile in velo and 94th percentile in spin rate. His curveball’s spin rate also comes in at the top third of the league, which has helped him to a whiff% and K% that are well above league average. His xBA, xSLG and xERA are all-around league average, though his most recent 50 plate appearances would tell you that those numbers are actually trending in the positive direction. Both the Rangers and the White Sox are top-10 teams in terms of NRFI success this season (57% and 53%, respectively), and I like the battle between these two aces to continue those trends tonight.

Bet: NRFI (-120 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

New York Mets vs. Houston Astros

Pitching matchup: Justin Verlander vs. Framber Valdez

The Astros will see a familiar face on the mound tonight, as Justin Verlander will get the start for the Mets. Verlander is coming off a terrific start his last time out, going six innings of three-hit ball and only surrendering one ER. Statcast tells us that his fastball and curveball are still both elite pitches, with their spin rates registering in the top 25% of the league. His BB% is good for the 70th percentile, and he’s generating chases at the 71st percentile. His xERA, xBA and barrel% are all comfortably above league average, and he’ll be pitching to an Astros lineup that fares worse against RHP and will be without the services of Yordan Alvarez. I think Verlander builds off the momentum from his last start to have another good showing tonight against his former squad.

Framber Valdez has continued to be one of the most consistent top-of-the-rotation arms in the MLB, coming into this game with a 2.27 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Though his ground ball rates have dipped slightly from some of the insane numbers he had in years past (70%+), he’s still among the top-five pitchers in recording ground ball outs at well above 50%. For that reason, his poor average exit velo and hard hit% are somewhat nullified because he’s not letting batters generate launch angle on those hard-hit balls. He has the best BB rate of his entire career at 5.5% and is among the top 30th percentile of pitchers in K%. Like the previous game, both the Astros and the Mets rank in the top 10 in terms of NRFI success (56% and 51%, respectively). We’ll also get the added bonus of Citi Field ranking second-to-last in offensive park factors of any ballpark since 2021.

Bet: NRFI (-125 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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