MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/18)
In today's NRFI plays, I'm choosing to fade some of the worst offenses in baseball in the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and... the New York Yankees without Aaron Judge, who are arguably much worse than the first two. All three teams have been struggling mightily to generate any kind of offense and rank bottom-5 in nearly every meaningful offensive category. I would almost feel comfortable going against these offenses regardless of who is on the mound, but I find the pitching matchups favorable, making the plays that much stronger. I'm counting on these teams to do what they do best (not score runs) to help get these tickets to the window this evening.
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Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI (31-26, -0.10 Units)
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers - No Runs 1st Inning (-110)
Daniel Lynch will get the start for the Royals in this matchup, a tell lefty who is likely having the best season of his 3-year MLB career. Lynch has excelled at avoiding hard contact, as his average exit velo ranks in the 77th percentile, and his hard hit% ranks in the 91st percentile among all pitchers. His chase rate and barrel% are both comfortably above the 60th percentile, and he's only walking 7% of the batters he faces. He'll be up against one of the most abysmal offenses in baseball, as the Tigers are a bottom-5 team in HR, BA, OPS, OBP and SLG. Detroit really doesn't have a lineup that boasts a lot of power, and Lynch has been great at neutralizing it, so I think he fares very well in this game and should be able to get through the first inning unscathed.
Tarik Skubal will go for the Tigers, getting his third start of the season as he works his way back from a flexor tendon surgery. Though we don't have much of a sample size to pull from this season alone, Skubal's body of work since entering the big leagues in 2020 has shown year-over-year improvement, culminating in this best season yet in 2022. His 3.34 xERA was solid in the 71st percentile, and his xBA and xSLG were well over the league average. He avoided a fair amount of bats with a chase rate and whiff% of 57th and 58th percentiles and a barrel% in the 77th percentile. Like Lynch, he also has great control of the strike zone, as he issued a free pass to less than 7% of the batters he faced.
Everything I said about Detroit's offense above could be copied and pasted right here because the Royals have been just as bad. This play isn't so much about the starting pitchers as it is the ineptitude of each offense, but I do still like each pitcher and how they should match up against the opposing offense.
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees - No Runs 1st Inning (+100)
As bad as the two offenses mentioned above have been, the Aaron Judge-less Yankees might actually take the cake as the worst offense in the MLB, and they will be up against a pretty tough matchup in Patrick Sandoval tonight. Similar to Daniel Lynch, Sandoval is avoiding hard contact with the best of them, with a hard hit% in the 79th percentile and an average exit velo in the 85th percentile. He's in the top third of all pitchers in barrel%, whiff% and chase rate, and he’ll be dealing with an absolutely hapless Yankees lineup that just surrendered a career-high strikeout mark to Griffin Canning over less than 6 full innings of work. The Yankees are already a bottom-5 offense in BA and OBP, and those numbers drop even lower to dead last since the Judge injury. Unless Sandoval absolutely can't find the strike zone, I expect him to roll through the first inning.
Domingo German has been an interesting case study this year, with highs of very good outings (perfect game, for example) and lows of horrendous outings (15 ER in 5.1 IP prior to the perfect game). His advanced metrics suggest that he's currently in the middle of one of his hot streaks, as his xWOBA has been much better than the league average over his past 50 batters faced, so I feel comfortable backing him as Sandoval's counterpart in this spot. His K% and BB% are in the 60th percentile, his whiff% and average exit velo is above the 70th percentile, and his chase rate is among the best in baseball at the 92nd percentile.
Though the Angels have pretty solid season-long offensive numbers, they are still without key bats like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon at the top of the order, and they'll be in their inferior hitting splits against the RHP German. Ohtani will always be a looming threat to any NRFI play involving the Angels (which inherently makes the price a little bit better for us), but if German can avoid the long ball, I like his spot here.
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