MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/4)
The Fourth of July is personally up there as one of my favorite holidays because what better way to spend a day than cooking some great food with cold drinks and good company?
The only thing I can think of is cashing a few bets on America's pastime to top it all off, and this article today will give you a couple of quick NRFI plays that will give you all the sweat of a normal wager without keeping you away from the grill or the pool for too long.
I've chosen a couple of star-studded pitching matchups on the day that we celebrate the star-spangled banner that I think have a great chance of success. Happy Fourth of July to all!
2023 NRFI: 27-24 (-1.63 Units)
Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
(Odds courtesy of Bet365)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup: Aaron Nola vs. Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin will get that ball for the Rays against his former squad, ready to show them everything that they’re missing out on. Eflin has simply been one of the best arms in the American League, with a stellar 9-3 record, plus a 3.29 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Eflin's underlying numbers suggest that he might actually be pitching better than his numbers indicate, as his 86th percentile xERA is lower than his actual ERA, at 3.10. He ranks in the 86th percentile in chase rate, 82nd percentile in hard hit% and he's in the top third of all pitchers in xBA and xSLG. His K/BB numbers are terrific, as he's only walking only 4.2% of the batters he faces while striking out over 25%. Eflin will also get the advantage of pitching to Philly from the right-handed side, where the Phillies have a slightly lower SLG than they do against lefties.
Perennial NL Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies today. After a somewhat rocky start to the season, it seems like Nola has been rounding back into form. His xERA of 3.64 is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA, and his recent performances returning to his last 250 batters faced has seen his xWOBA trending in the positive direction. His average exit velo, hard hit%, xBA, xSLG, K%, BB%, whiff% and chase rate are all good for at least the 51st percentile, with several of those metrics comfortably better than that of the league average. Though the Rays do pose a formidable offensive threat, they fare significantly worse against RHP. The Rays are also a top-five team in all of baseball in NRFI success rate at 55%. Additionally, the atrocity that is Tropicana Field has tended to be very pitcher-friendly, ranking 27th overall in offensive park factors since 2021.
Bet: NRFI (-110)
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs. Joe Musgrove
Joe Musgrove has been flat-out terrific this season, and he will get the honors of toeing the rubber for San Diego this evening. Musgrove's advanced numbers are outstanding, with a 3.17 xERA that's good for the 84th percentile. His average exit velo, barrel%, hard hit%, chase rate and BB% all rank above the 80th percentile, and his xBA comes in at the 68th percentile. His most recent 250 plate appearances suggest that he's been incredibly consistent, with his xWOBA ranking well above league average for the entirety of that duration. The Padres are a top-10 team in terms of NRFI success rate this season, and I trust Musgrove's stuff to navigate through a tough Angels lineup in the top half of the first tonight.
We'll wrap up the quartet of starting pitchers for my NRFI picks with the superstar Shohei Ohtani, whose legend seems to grow by the day. Like the previous three pitchers, Shohei's stats and advanced numbers are immaculate. His average exit velo, K% and xBA put him in the top 10% of all pitchers. His xSLG and whiff% are in the top 20%, and then his hard hit% and xERA are both in the top 25%. The Padres have slowly regressed toward the rest of the league offensively after a brutal start to the season, but they still have pretty horrible numbers against RHP like Ohtani, which are demonstrably worse than their numbers against LHP. Ohtani and Musgrove will also benefit from pitching in the second-least hitter-friendly ballpark in the MLB, ranking well below league average in terms of XBH (including HR) and well above league average regarding strikeout rate.
Bet: NRFI (-125)
Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers
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