MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (5/10)
After a (slightly) profitable Tuesday of fading some pretty prolific offenses, I'm returning to my roots today with my MLB NRFI picks. I found two MLB games that immediately jumped off the page, with some really outstanding (and somewhat overlooked) pitchers going against some offenses that don't exactly strike me with fear. The prices reflect this, as they are a little bit steeper than usual, but I feel strongly about these two plays, and they are my favorites in the NRFI market this Friday.
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | 2024 NRFI (14-8; +1.84 Units)
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad vs. Jared Jones
While Paul Skenes is generating a ton of buzz around Pittsburgh surrounding his recent call-up to the big leagues, RHP Jared Jones has been absolutely phenomenal in his rookie season for the Pirates. Jones is the third-ranked prospect in the Pirates organization and has absolutely lived up to the hype so far, holding a 2.63 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with sparkling underlying metrics. His xERA of 2.95 sits in the 81st percentile, and his xBA of 0.221 is good for the 72nd percentile. His fastball is among the hardest for MLB starting pitchers, which has led to some elite swing-and-miss numbers. His K%, whiff% and chase rate are all north of the 95th percentile, and he's only walking an absurdly low 3.2% of the batters he faces.
The Cubs’ offense has dipped in production since the early part of the season. It is likely a combination of Cody Bellinger's injury and then just normal regression back to their mean offensive capabilities. They now rank in the bottom half of baseball in OPS and SLG, and they currently rank 20th in AVG. Jones is an electric factory on the mound, and I expect him to have another dominant start with a clean first inning against the Cubs this evening.
Cubs RHP Javier Assad has been flying under the radar on a star-studded pitching rotation, which is quite a shame because his production has nearly been unmatched by another starting pitcher in 2024. Assad holds a 3-0 record, with an insanely low ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP just slightly north of 1. Unlike Jones, Assad does not throw the ball hard and instead relies on a deep pitch mix and movement on all of his pitches. He has executed his arsenal pretty flawlessly in the early goings of this season, working an xERA of 3.23 and an xBA of 0.223. His calling card has been his ability to avoid hard contact this season, as both his average exit velocity and hard-hit% rank in the top third of all pitchers.
Assad will work against one of the worst offenses in the league tonight, as the Pirates rank bottom-10 in OBP and bottom-five in HR, AVG, OPS and AVG with a top-five strikeout rate. PNC Park has also been friendly to pitchers in recent seasons, ranking below league average in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors and coming in third-to-last in HR rate since 2022.
Bet: NRFI (-148)
Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi has admittedly been a fade candidate of mine for the past several years, but I've had to change my tune this season, as he's currently in the best form of his six-year career. Kikuchi's ERA of 2.72 is nearly mirrored by his xERA of 2.95, and his K% sits in the 73rd percentile, while his 5.6% walk rate is the lowest of his career. Kikuchi is a ground ball-heavy pitcher, keeping the ball out of the air at a 47.3% clip, which falls just shy of the 70th percentile.
While Minnesota's offensive numbers look pretty good so far, I would argue that they're not quite indicative of their median offensive performance. The Twins have really gotten to flex their muscles in 10 combined games between the White Sox and Angels over the past few weeks.
Joe Ryan gets the rock for the Twins tonight. He is one of my favorite pitchers to back from last year who has continued his success into the early parts of 2024. Ryan's xERA of 2.45 is incredible and comes in over a full run lower than his actual ERA of 3.54, which is also really good. His xBA of 0.199 sits above the 80th percentile, as does his K% and chase rate. He's walking under 4% of the batters he faces. He's also done a great job of avoiding hard contact, with a hard-hit% of just 33%, which puts him in the 80th percentile in that category as well. Simply put, Ryan is a rock-solid pitcher all-around, with underlying metrics suggesting he has been elite.
He'll face a Toronto lineup that has maybe underachieved the most in the MLB relative to expectation so far, ranking bottom-10 in HR, AVG, OPS and OBP, despite all the name-brand star power that their lineup possesses.
Bet: NRFI (-128)