MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (8/9)
The summer heat and pitcher fatigue that has accrued throughout the first 110+ games of the regular season has turned the tide a bit in the NRFI market, which was hitting at an insane clip early on in the year. Today's pitching matchups also leave a lot to be desired, with a lot of elevated totals across the board on this Friday's slate of games. As such, one of tonight's plays involves fading the Dodgers’ offense, though I do think that adds value to the play overall. Aside from that, we have two really dominant pitchers and two rock-solid veteran pitchers, combined with three offenses that I would consider to be bottom-10 with very high strikeout rates and unimpressive power numbers. The last game on the slate tonight (Giants vs Tigers) also has my attention, though the Tigers have yet to name a starting pitcher.
Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2024 NRFI (41-34; +0.93 Units)
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon vs. Garrett Crochet
The Chicago crosstown showdown features one of the best and most underappreciated pitchers in the league, with the big lefty Garrett Crochet getting the ball for the White Sox against the Cubs. Crochet has been dynamite in his first full season as a starter, holding a 3.19 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with underlying metrics that suggest he's been even better than that. He ranks above the 60th percentile in every statistical category on his baseball savant page but has had exceptional swing-and-miss stuff, ranking in the 85th percentile in chase rate with a 92nd percentile whiff% and 97th percentile K%. He ranks above the 63rd percentile in barrel%, hard-hit%, and average exit velocity, and his xBA and xERA both sit above the 95th percentile. Crochet has a pretty favorable matchup against a Cubs lineup that has underperformed for a majority of the season, ranking in the bottom half of baseball in OBP and bottom 10 in Ks, AVG, OPS, SLG, and HR. They also have nearly identical splits against LHP and RHP, so no significant advantage is gained against the lefty in this one.
Crochet's counterpart will be the veteran RHP Jameson Taillon, who has quietly put together a solid year for the Cubs. His 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP are both great marks, which he has maintained primarily by controlling the strike zone (91st percentile BB%) and avoiding hard contact (69th percentile hard-hit%). Taillon unquestionably has the most favorable matchup of the day against a dreadful White Sox team that ranks dead-last in AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG and 2nd-worst in HR (shoutout to the Nationals). The White Sox strike out at a top-10 rate and traded away one of their only above-average bats in Tommy Pham at the trade deadline. They're also somehow worse against RHP than LHP, which gives Taillon an additional boost here. There's absolutely nothing to like about this White Sox lineup, and Taillon should have his way with them all night long.
Pick: NRFI (-130 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty dominated in his first start with the Dodgers, tossing 5.0 scoreless innings and fanning seven batters against an A's team that has quietly been swinging the bat really well as of late. His season-long numbers are phenomenal as well, with a 2.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP that are backed up by his underlying numbers. He's been one of the best strikeout artists in the MLB this year, ranking above the 93rd percentile in whiff%, K%, and chase%. He also hasn't been walking batters (95th percentile BB%), and his average exit velocity and hard-hit% each sit in the 74th percentile as well. This matchup really does not bode well for a Pirates offense that strikes out at a top-5 rate and ranks 25th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS, SLG, and HR. They'll also be at a splits disadvantage against the righty Flaherty, so I really expect him to dominate this evening.
For all the buzz that the Pirates’ young pitchers have generated this season, Mitch Keller has continued to be his reliable self in the middle of that rotation. Keller holds a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, with an xERA and xBA that are both comfortably above league average. His calling card has been his ability to avoid hard contact and free baserunners, ranking above the 70th percentile in BB% and barrel% and falling just shy in average exit velocity and hard-hit%. Keller is in really good form right now as well, having surrendered no more than two earned runs. In each of his previous five starts. While it's really hard to poke holes in the Dodgers’ offensive ceiling, their numbers do take a noticeable dip against right-handed pitching and they have appeared much more mortal as of late, scoring more than four runs in just four of their previous 15 games. Ohtani is obviously the linchpin at the top of their batting order; if Keller gets him out, this play has an excellent chance to hit.
Pick: NRFI (-113 at FanDuel)